Financial Times

Politicians on the road again
The presidential polls are around the corner and the most likely dates would be known next week through an announcement by the Elections Commissioner.
The public, the business community and the rest of civil society will follow the usual rhetoric about and from the two main candidates – Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapakse and Opposition Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe – on what they stand for and the path they intend following.

Whether candidates from other parties will join the fray or that other parties would back the two main candidates remains to be seen though despite all the pronouncements, most analysts believe the JVP will ultimately support Rajapakse. There is little to differentiate between the two main candidates although Rajapakse is seen pulling in all directions or rather pulled by the likes of the JVP and other factions.

Both candidates are proposing a free market policy and a negotiated settlement to the ethnic question. Rajapakse’s stance on the ethnic question – which has been wavering in recent weeks – will however be clearer in the days ahead after his nomination is ratified by the party and the polls date is announced.

Just like civil society, the private sector has also got tired of polls given its repeated frequency – in the latest case two polls in two years after the April 2004 parliamentary election. While the stock market will show historical up-and-down swings based on pronouncements by the candidates and other developments, it would be business as usual for the rest of the private sector which has gradually become immune to elections.

Investment however has slowed down and the land market has dipped due to the uncertainties ahead. Most businesses though have factored in elections into their forward planning and forward strategies.

The private sector should also be aware that the presidential poll is most likely to be followed by parliamentary poll, much more in the case of Ranil Wickremesinghe. In the event of a UNP win, the party – despite being the largest single group -- would want to consolidate its strength in parliament by raising the tally of members to ensure it has a trouble-free tenure in the legislature.

It’s not certain whether Rajapakse, in the case of a UPFA victory, would opt for a parliamentary poll. That’s an issue that doesn’t appear to be discussed at the moment in the ruling party camp though a stronger UPFA parliamentary group would certainly help in their path forward.

So what would the private sector and businesses want from the poll? Nothing more than the restoration of political stability, a speedy return to normal business and a smooth transfer of power to the winner from President Chandrika Kumaratunga. The quicker the transition is made, the better it is for everyone and especially business sentiment.

As stated earlier policies of the two parties are more or less the same on the economy and peace. Rajapakse, still an unknown entity in terms of running a country, is focussing on a new economic order and appealing to the business community for support.

He has been doing the rounds in recent weeks of business meetings and hobnobbing with business leaders and civil society. Both candidates have their pluses and minuses with Rajapakse having the edge or Wickremesinghe in the lead, depending on who one talks to.

One of the biggest challenges facing the new President would be in bringing down prices of essential commodities and the cost of production. Oil prices have hit the roof and the government may be forced to offer some sops to woo voters to their side. Ceylon Petroleum Corporation chairman Jaliya Medagama last week warned of rising local fuel prices if the government didn’t provide a subsidy.

Rising oil prices could also put the brakes on some production sectors. As repeatedly said ad nauseam in the past, the sooner we get away from the dependence on imported fuel, the freer the country would be. The candidates’ stand on speeding up the Norochcholai and Kotmale power projects would be widely awaited.

Trying to restore peace talks would be another hurdle for the new leader given the ducks-and-drakes policy by Tamil Tiger guerrillas. No one knows whether the rebels are coming or going, meaning whether they are interested in peace talks or have another agenda. At least that is unclear to the common man.

Business leaders from J-Biz are planning to meet the two candidates and listen to what they have to say. Instead of mere listening, shouldn’t J-Biz, a powerful grouping, muster the courage to tell these leaders what the country needs and that they would withdraw support if leaders don’t deliver on what is promised. Does the business community have the guts to do this?

The economy is floundering for want of clear policy directions. These are the challenges facing the new leader who would need a new vision, is sincere and honest and can deliver the goods.

Back to Business