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Earthquake alert scenario shows we may be sitting ducks in another tsunami
A shocking “compare and contrast” with Thailand
By Vidushi Seneviratne and Smriti Daniel
Last Sunday’s quake off the Nicobar island chain logged as a 7.3 on the Richter Scale, “a magnitude which geologists do not consider generally capable of producing a large tsunami”, at least according to the geologists here, in our country. Not so in Thailand. Thais were jolted awake by the tremors of that earthquake. It was nearly midnight and though they were disoriented, when the alarms sounded the warning, they were already heading out of their homes and hotels – saying a tsunami is possibly on its way. Across six Thai provinces people scrambled to safety, heading towards higher ground. There they waited over 90 minutes until they were sure the tsunami was not coming.

In Sri Lanka the television channels – bar none – played music, and aired the regular soaps. Director News of Swarnawahini Rosmand Senaratne said that the media could not inform the public of the danger without some professional advice from the authorities concerned. He emphasised the need for strong communication links between the government and the media. Well, such links do not seem to exist in this country. Take what they did in Thailand, in contrast:

Thai authorities cut into local television programmes to issue emergency broadcasts that said the earthquake was about 660 kilometres west of the resort island of Phuket, whose west coast was hard hit in December's disaster.
D.H.P. Dharmaratne, the Met Department chief in Sri Lanka, who says he “remained vigilant throughout the Sunday scare’’, decided not to raise the alarm, as he felt that evacuation was unnecessary. “Generally, a tsunami will occur only if the earthquake is above the magnitude of 8 on the Richter scale, and even then, the depth at which it occurs is crucial. It must be no more then 100 kilometres below the surface level, with ones occurring between 10 and 20 metres being the worst.”

Really???
But in Thailand the national disaster warning centre triggered its alert after the US Geological survey said a “major’’ earthquake measuring 7.0 hit the remote Indian island chain. Huge earthquake -- and it merits a tsunami warning in Thailand -- but not even a basic message on Sri Lankan television to say ‘’MAJOR earthquake occurred -- do not panic we will keep you informed’’ More like a case of me rate minissu ung kelline pissu – considering all television channels decided their show will go on?

What would be the purpose of such a basic warning?? At least, it will keep people in a general state of readiness -- whereas in the blissfully ignorant state that was induced by our Met authorities, all that TV viewers would have done was to nod off and go to sleep.

Who is responsible for this state of complacency after a killer Tsunami in December about which we all know only to well??

Depending on the news, Seismic Activity and Tsunami Alert Centre (SATAC) in Sri Lanka follows a set of protocols that includes informing the concerned authorities of the danger. “After the earthquake on Sunday, we informed the Meteorological Department who were then on standby,” said Dr. Berand Prame. Director of the Geological and Mines Survey Bureau who is also in SATAC.
If the situation looks bad, the Meteorological department is responsible for sounding the official alarm.

It does this by contacting the local media, the district secretaries and the Central Information Centre at Mirihana which in turn informs the island’s police stations.

But, unlike even in India - - the Metrological department did not so much as see it fit to keep the television stations on alert, or to cut into programmes, or even tell Mirihana Police ‘’there was an earthquake – do not panic, but we will keep you informed.’’

In contrast Thailand Premier himself told reporters: A tsunami does not automatically happen, but if the earthquake is strong enough there is a possibility.'

The earthquake that struck the Nicobar Islands in the Indian Ocean on July 24 was said to be 7+ on the Richter scale. The quake - which was felt in several parts of Sri Lanka (see BOX) – has reignited concerns over Sri Lanka’s ability to cope with another tsunami.

Do we have a warning system in place? Can we evacuate our citizens in time? In the wake of the Sunday’s earthquake, the answers to these questions become more than vital – they now spell the difference between life and death. “We currently rely on the Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre (PTWC) and the Japanese Meteorological Centre for Tsunami alerts,” said Mr. D.H.P Dharmaratne, Director General of the island’s Meteorological Department. Mr. Dharmaratne went on to say that the department was in constant touch with both centres through a desk working 24 hours, 7 days a week.

Also the chairman of the Tsunami Early Warning, Mitigation and Monitoring Interim Committee, set up in the wake of December’s Tsunami, Mr. Dharmaratne is spear heading Sri Lanka’s attempts to arm itself against a repetition of the recent tragedy heading a committee of various organisations. But that’s all in the future.

“Neither the PTWC (Pacific Tsunami warning Centre) nor the Japanese meteorological department have buoys or pressure gauges in the Indian Ocean” said Mr. Dharmaratne. This means that while they can report the magnitude of the earthquake they cannot predict a tsunami, as they would not be able to determine the depth at which the earthquake occurred.
If they cannot be so sure of the depth, and if we rely on PTCW for information, can Dhramartane be heard to say as he did: “Generally, a tsunami will occur only if the earthquake is above the magnitude of 8 on the Richter scale, and even then, the depth at which it occurs is crucial. It must be no more then 100 kilometres below the surface level, with ones occurring between 10 and 20 meters being the worst.” How did Dhrmaraten determine the depth on Sunday?? Guesswork??

How he be so cocksure of the depth, if he says himself the depth cannot be determined by the data we get??

SATAC which monitors seismic activity in the region 24/7, does so through several stations set up by the San Diego University of California. “Within 15 minutes to an hour they let us know the results,” said Dr. Prame, going on to add that that is what had occurred last Sunday.

Crying “Wolf” too often is bound to result in the loss of trust on the part of the public, a situation which might prove disastrous in the event of a real tsunami, explained. Dharmaratne, justifying his hesitancy in attempting to mobilise the public. That maybe so -- but its one thing to cry wolf and totally another to be in a fools paradise. The earthquake was so massive, it a felt by Sri Lankans Colombo.

Are we going to be the exception – by not even having a cursory alert on television to say ‘’do not panic but be on alert’’ and both India and Thailand did; Thailan ordering an evacuation.

Or is it more like a case of crass complacency -- now covered up with rationales that sound far too good to be true??

Jolted journalist
9.45 p.m.- A Sunday Times journalist was seated at his desk on Sunday inside his 3rd floor cubicle.

When his chair became ‘’jumpy’’ he thought it was the ghosts. But brought up against believing in supernatural phenomena, he ruled out the poltergeist.Then it hit him. This was an earthquake. He ran out to alert the rest of his colleagues to get out of the building.

But they seemed to be immersed in their work, and the journalist didn’t want to be a panic artist. He went back to work – the chair now behaving soberly. An hour later, at a restaurant, a friend informed him casually that he had been phoned – from a friend in USA mind you – that there was an earthquake in the Indian ocean, which hit at 9.45 pm Lankan time. It was a major jolt, which shook our journalist’s chair hundreds of miles off epicentre.

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