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| P-TOMS:
Blow hot, blow cold
If she directed some of the fiercest phases of an unwinnable separatist war with Tiger guerrillas, for President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga, prosecuting peace during the three year cease-fire seems to have turned out to be the beginning of her political undoing. Dogged by a string of political misadventures and led into increased isolation by her close confidants, a decade at the helm of nation's affairs, one would never have thought, would be the finale. That is to her charming and charismatic near-decade-long stint at the helm of the nation's destiny. But like the charm and charisma, her political savvy and stateswomanship, appear crumbling slowly but surely. Firstly it seemed a string of misjudgments. She chose, so stubbornly, to enter into a Joint Mechanism (or P-TOMS) with the LTTE to share tsunami aid. That is six months after the devastating disaster. Neither her Cabinet nor Parliament was consulted. Despite warnings from her trusted advisors, she refused to believe her Government's major junior partner, the JVP, would quit her United People's Freedom Alliance if this was done. Now from remaining an opposition within the Government, the JVP has chosen to do so from outside. Now some of the countries that furiously encouraged her to enter into the Joint Mechansim (or P-TOMS) are saying they will not be able to fund that arrangement. They include the world's only superpower the United States, its strong ally Britain and Japan, Sri Lanka's biggest aid donor. How did she or her officials believe, so vigorously, that aid would pour in like water from the Dunhinda falls? After she conceded the Joint Mechansim (or P-TOMS) with the LTTE, she as well as her advisors believed that the content Tiger guerrillas will de-escalate violent activity. To the contrary, they have stepped up attacks on key targets including intelligence operatives. They have shut down political offices in security forces-controlled areas in the East. State intelligence agencies say this is a prelude to bigger strikes. Her Army Commander Shantha Kottegoda, known now for his strong belief in pacifism could not resist telling the media last week that his men would hit back if they were continuously attacked. Even the man who only spoke of peace, and only peace, in the mess halls and conference rooms could not resist issuing that warning. But, Kumaratunga in a statement expressed her "deep concern and sadness by the violence and loss of life" occurring in and around Trincomalee. She said political violence should be resolved through dialogue and negotiations and not through hostility. As she issued the statement, intelligence operatives in Jaffna were continuing their interrogation of a Sea Tiger who willingly surrendered. He dropped a bombshell this week by disclosing that 14 ship loads of military hardware have been smuggled into the country in the recent past. This is in addition to the 17 shipments that arrived before the Navy attacked a merchant vessel bringing in more defence supplies in 2003. Here was proof again that the guerrillas were preparing for war as Kumaratunga talked of dialogue and negotiations. That is not all. It was only on Friday the LTTE rejected conditions stipulated by Jayantha Dhanapala, Secretary General of the Peace Secretariat, for escorting travel of guerrilla cadres from "controlled" to "uncontrolled" areas. The seasoned UN diplomat said providing military escort "is a confidence-building measure and not a right under the Ceasefire Agreement." If Dhanapala was blowing hot, Kumaratunga was blowing cold -- a clear revelation of how much things have been allowed to drift. An angry LTTE Political Wing leader, S.P. Thamilselvan warned again the guerrillas would be forced to their own means and modes of transport. "This, we fear, would push the CFA into a grave and complex situation," he warned. The warning has been taken seriously by the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission. They are now formulating alternative suggestions and are to consult both sides. The Joint Mechansim (or P-TOMS) and her preoccupation with the LTTE have distracted her from other vital areas of governance, particularly to ensure people were cushioned in some way from the devastating blows from price increases. Little wonder, their anger was reflected along 100 miles of highway. This was when Opposition leader Ranil Wickremesinghe launched the UNP’s Jana Bala Mehayuma from Devundara to Colombo. He drew unprecedented crowds to the march as well as the final rally in Colombo. His detractors in the UPFA were only able to see a darker side -- a few inebriated revellers or Wickremesinghe's biting criticism of Kumaratunga's intention to remain as President for another year. It seemed as if there were no drunken revellers during Sri Lanka Freedom Party rallies or complaints, no criticism was made of the Supreme Court by them. Who said the judges were all corrupt? Quite clearly Kumaratunga would not have known that some of her actions had pushed the people to the streets and Wickremesinghe, whose party played little or no role as an opposition, had now begun reaping the harvest. It is in this backdrop that JVP's fire brand Wimal Weerawansa and 13 other colleagues notched a significant political victory. That was when Chief Justice Sarath Nanda Silva ruled that the President had a right to enter into an agreement with the LTTE, taking a cue from the famous American jurist Dean Ruscoe Pound that the courts must not just be a clinical legalistic institution, but a socially conscious institution. It was probably in that spirit that he equally rejected the Government's argument that the petitioners had no locus standi (no status) in such a case, when he made a comment from the bench that "everyone was affected by the tsunami". Then, the Chief Justice held that several provisions of the P-TOMS were thoroughly flawed. I have listed some of the many miscalculations or misjudgements by Kumaratunga in recent months. If that is bad enough, what is worse was the accompanying contradictions. Some of them so stark. It was only a fortnight ago, Thamilselvan told The Sunday Times that in signing the Joint Mechansim (or P-TOMS) the LTTE was not accepting Sri Lanka's sovereignty. Now the billion dollar question therefore is whether they would accept last Friday's Supreme Court judgment. In fact, a day ahead of the Supreme Court's initial determination of the JVP application, the Attorney General's Department -- which was not consulted on the Joint Mechanism before or after its signing -- received two documents. Both were dated July 11. One was a copy of a letter sent to P.B. Jayasundera, Secretary to the Treasury by Peter Harrold, Country Director of the World Bank. The second was a letter written by Mr. Jayasundera to the Attorney General. Peter Harrold who was at the centre of a controversy after he denied disclosures he made in an interview to The Sunday Times was in fact due for transfer. His bosses in Washington had decided, after the JVP and other parties raised protests consequent to the interview, he should be moved to Brazil as Country Director. But former US Deputy Secretary for Defence, Paul A. Wolfowitz, who became Chairman of World Bank had halted all transfers. In his letter titled "Post Tsunami Coastal Fund" Harrold told Jayasundera the "World Bank is agreeable to enter into an agreement with the Government of Sri Lanka to facilitate the implementation of the proposed Post Tsunami Coastal Fund for six districts referred to in the recently signed Memorandum of Understanding between the Government and the LTTE." He
said the Bank will have to follow the "approved procedure"
applicable in relation to providing foreign funds and told Jayasundera
he would have to obtain Cabinet approval and the approval of the
Attorney General for the execution of such an agreement. Strange
enough there was no mention of any Parliamentary approval by the
ever obliging World Bank chief. Jayasundera's three-page letter to the Attorney General said his Ministry was requested to nominate the World Bank to perform the role assigned to a multilateral agency. He said the World Bank is preferred since Sri Lanka is a member and has a long working relationship in implementing a wide range of development projects including rehabilitation projects in the north and east. He pointed out that since the headquarters of the World Bank is located in Washington D.C, it is required to comply with US laws in addition to having to comply with its own governance structure. Jayasundera said all funds (to be shared with the LTTE) will become proceeds of the Consolidated Fund. Accordingly, all proceeds will be credited to a special Donor Account in the Central Bank of Sri Lanka. The rupee proceeds of such foreign receipts will be channelled to the Regional Fund via the Treasury Account and through the relevant line ministries, based on project implementation plans and the progress of implementation. Jayasundera added: "For this purpose, if the implementation is envisaged in the current year, a budget allocation from a provision approved by Parliament for a similar purpose in the relevant line ministry or supplementary provision approved by the Cabinet and Parliament, should be obtained. However, pertaining to the next year, such provisions will have to be created in the budget estimates following the normal budget process, which estimates will be presented in Parliament." Jayasundera concludes by saying that "the above explains our understanding of the application of Financial Regulations and procedures in the overall context of the implementation arrangement for the proposed Post-Tsunami Coastal Fund...." If as Jayasundera claims that is the Government's understanding of how finances relating to the P-TOMS would be worked, why were they not incorporated in the agreement? Since they were not incorporated in the agreement, was it only a message to placate the South? On the other hand, if it becomes the official position of the Government of Sri Lanka publicly, would the LTTE accept it? Is this not a clear case of an attempt to mislead the public whilst the LTTE has been given an altogether different version? Unlike the practice of the past, no senior Government supporter or confidant of Kumaratunga was seen in the Supreme Court when it delivered judgement on Friday. The media accosted President's Counsel and MP Wijedasa Rajapakse in Courts but he declared "I have nothing to do with this case." If top stalwarts were there to counsel Kumaratunga in the past, those regularly meeting her now were few who are relatively junior. That included Mervyn Silva, Dilan Perera and Lasantha Alagiyawanna among others. At one such meeting with them, an interview given by Minister Mangala Samaraweera to the Divaina newspaper was the subject of discussion. One of them criticised Samaraweera for remarking in the interview that the Tamil National Alliance had not even thanked Kumaratunga for signing the P-TOMS. Also discussed was how posters with Opposition Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe's face interposed with Singer Michael Jackson's body appeared in city streets. Kumaratunga, who was now soft on the UNP, said that should not have been done. She did not approve of this being done by Samaraweera's people. The latter's aide Ruwan Ferdinandez was said to be behind the move. But that was to anger Samaraweera who declared "I do not want to give credit to others for a thing I did." Another significant development are two private members’ motions to be moved in Parliament by Wijedasa Rajapakse, known to be one among lawyers offering legal advice to President Kumaratunga. His motions are to have Parliament elect the next President from among the crop of MPs. This is done in India, but where the President is a largely ceremonial figure. If this move succeeds, there will be no requirement for Kumaratunga or her SLFP to decide on a candidate for the Presidential elections. Hence, there are influential SLFPers who believe this is an insidious move to sideline Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapakse. His supporters say top rung leaders in the Freedom Party were spearheading a mud-slinging campaign against Rajapakse and this was another way of hurting him. But Rajapakse remains unmoved. Kumaratunga
loyalists are also scouring the archives of the state-run television
networks to obtain footage critical of the JVP. This is said to
be a prelude to a major campaign against them. Kumaratunga has also
with her several files of CID investigations into cases of leading
JVP members. For now, however, the UNP is cock-a-hoop followng its successful JBM (Jana Bala Meheyuma - or Peoples Power) march. Its leader Wickremesinghe is nursing a bandaged swollen foot due to the Long March he himself led, but the swelling of some of the party helmsmen's egos is the bigger danger. The swollen foot did not prevent Wickremesinghe leaving a happy man to Washington DC on Friday night for a probable meeting with President George W Bush and other right-wing leaders of the International Democratic Union. The UNP leader is due to become the President of the Asia-Pacific Democratic Union taking over from the Australian Prime Minister John Howard, re-establishing the UNP's alliance with the right-wing political parties of the world, including the Republicans (US), Conservatives (UK) and the Liberals (Australia ). Wickremesinghe was accompanied by unabashed US supporter Milinda Moragoda on the trip. In the meantime, a political wag's description of Kumaratunga's future role aptly summarises the situation. He says it is a Path To Only Misery and Suffering or P-TOMS for Kumaratunga. In an otherwise bad week, the only good word she seems to have got was from former US President Bill Clinton. |
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