HA! What happened to our grand ole' party?
When the election of April 2004 was done, Colombo papers went batty about who really won and how and when a government will be formed. But there was no such needless tearing of hair or gnashing of teeth at least in this column. That must be said with the degree of modesty that's reasonably called for under the circumstances !Here in this space, it was said that the UPFA has won, and that it will govern with a good degree of comfort - - -because it is bound to get the correct coalition partners together eventually to form a government. Of course the CWC was counted into that calculation.

But the government initially could not arrive at a compromise with the CWC -- but it was a matter of time the UPFA leadership did so, so can we say to all concerned 'we told you so.'' (!)

The concern here however, is not to take a bow or to say we got it right, but to point to the often forgotten imperatives in Sri Lankan politics. All that talk of hung-parliaments and no-majorities, about which the UNP adulators went into a frenzy was in the end just a lot of wishful hope. There was some damage done indubitably to the UPFA government and notoriously of course the Speaker's post went to the opposition in a fiasco of a Parliamentary vote.

But the fact remains that eventually the UPFA - - which this column said categorically was the only party that could govern after those elections results were in -- has now belatedly come to the arrangement that was in fact spoken about in this column in the first place. Which is that the UPFA should form an alliance with the CWC, which is the only way that it can govern with the reasonable degree of comfort that it entitled to after defeating the UNP.

So now that that is out of the way, it seems we can talk about the UNP's fortunes clinically. The UNP was down but not out. Now the UNP is down - - AND out.

The UNP may be out for a long time to come, and considering that it has governed (that too in half measure with an Executive President form the opposition party) for only two out of the last ten years, it appears that the UNP's epitaph can be safely written today. There will of course will be a resurrection, but that might be in a different epoch even, so to say.

The UNP will now have its next shot at power at the next Presidential elections. Though it's definitely too early in the day for any predictions on that, as things stand, the next presidential elections will be a long haul for the UNP. The Presidency will be a fight with an incumbent government in place for the next four to five years, and under these circumstances, the UNP will have to bring off something very special to win that election.

If the UNP does not win that Presidential election, then it will be out of power for the next five to six years at least. Which means in plain language that the UNP's goose, whether any of the party's sympathizers or closet sympathizers like it or not, is well and truly cooked.

This is why if the UNP has any sense of how to get about the process of reform should democratize the party as suggested also in these columns a couple of weeks back. But there are of course the pundits, some of whom have taken the time to write to the papers who say that democratizing the party is not a priority NOW.

Now you should listen to this! Somebody writing to the letters to the Editor styled as SW ( SW RW? what's the difference, but let’s come back to initials some other day!) says with no tongue in cheek and no reticence whatsoever that the UNP should indeed democratize some day - - but certainly the current is not the time to do it! The writer also says that as far as he knows the current process of anointing the party leader was how others such as JR Jayewardene, Premadasa and some others came to head the party as well!

"If it ain't broke don't fix it!'' That's my favorite Americanism…….
There was no dip in the UNP's fortunes when above-mentioned leaders were handling the affairs of the party, but unfortunately the UNP is not in that happy position today. If any more proof of that's needed of course its what came as a preamble to all this, which is the fact that with Thondmaan now in government the UNP seems to be settled for a very long ride in the opposition. Now, this writer certainly does not have any stake or even an iota of real concern about the fortunes of the UNP. It's the committed UNPers such as the letter writer who should be worried about its future.

But at least for academic purposes, and of course for purposes of having a useful and vibrant political force in the UNP which will be beneficial to the polity in the long term, the suggestion made here was that the UNP democratize the party! But the queer and need I say puerile reaction which we get to such a suggestion is that A) the UNP should indeed democratize, but not now (how is that for revealing your hand!) and B) that some former formidable leaders also climbed to leadership positions in the party via the same process.

With these sorts of strategic gems that we get from some people who obviously have an interest in the party (why should SW put pen to paper if he wasn't?) well - - you can count on it, the UNP will be out of power for the next decade. Safely. That's going to also redefine the political space in ways that the dunderheads in the UNP cannot obviously imagine. The political space will soon be probably defined in a two-way contest - - - between the JVP perhaps and the PA. We do not know. But obviously the government will be gloating, and any government in Sri Lanka, which is reasonably sure of its tenure, and which also had the Presidency at its disposal is actually bad news for the country.

In other words with the UNP now safely out of the way, the UPFA can begin to ride roughshod over the masses or the mass aspiration. Now that this is guaranteed, but historically authoritarianism has been the tendency of political parties that govern unhindered with the help of a Executive Presidency.

This is why the people should even if they do not want not wish the UNP luck with the kind of political nincompoops that comprise it today, should at least hope that the party will be democratized, and that there will be a reasonable chance for the dead and buried UNP to resurrect itself soon. With dynamic leadership, who knows the UNP might have a chance to govern in at least in another 12 years. But without - - it can hope to be in opposition until the next generation.

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