Campaign trail: Who does what to whom
By Our Political Editor
It's a campaign that gets curiouser and curiouser. The President in an interview with the BBC, has stated that she will talk only to Prabhakaran. The President probably had reason to look for the moral high ground.

Her advisors probably calculated that Prabhakaran will on the long run prevail over Karuna. He is the man a future UPFA government will have to talk to.

Talking of future UPFA governments, it is now indicated in several surveys that the UNF is closing in on the UPFA lead in the opinion polls that have been conducted to date. The UPFA started with a bang, and has been having the edge since.

The UPFA's big momentum however is slowing. It still means the UPFA is leading in the polls as of today. But it's a slimmer lead that appears to be getting still thinner. We are not going to quote chapter and verse here for several reasons from all the surveys conducted, but one conducted by the Centre for Policy Alternatives for instance shows that the UNF's strength is in its image as peacemaker. The Kumaratunga forces lead this poll as well, however. Ranil Wickremesinghe is shown to have failed on the economic issues -- but his rating as a peacemaker is more than healthy.

Though indications now are that the elections will be a close call, this picture could change with the approach of polling day. Either the UNF could be shown as having a slender lead, or the UPFA could be shown as having a big lead. But by all accounts, the UPFA is leading now. A reasonable take on this would be that the people are frustrated -- might add, as usual -- about economic issues. 61 per cent say that the most serious issue faced by the electorate is the economy. Peace, as number one issue, has been receding from people's minds, ironically, because there has been peace for two years now which means that the people are taking it for granted. The other is that the rift in the LTTE etc, is further testimony in people's minds that there are more important issues that concern them with more immediacy than the issue of peace.

The UPFA's uncanny ability to get the public icons - - the Susanthikas and the Anojas on its "platform'' also is a telling comment on the fact that the UNF is not getting things right. It is correct that the UPFA campaign is not going quite right either.

The JVP in many electorates want to have the whole cake for themselves. Having been out of the manapa (preference) war, these JVPers don't want to understand its niceties. As far as they are concerned there are no niceties - they want to take as much of the preferences as they can for themselves.

But it is still not clear why the two main parties are not coveting the TNA support more carefully. Perhaps on the other hand they are. Even if Karuna throws in his lot with any majority party -- he has already told TNA candidates that this is what they should do -- it is clear that the TNA leadership will determine who can remain as a Member of Parliament. At the point of writing at least, Prabhakaran still commands the loyalty of the TNA leadership. This may have been a reason for Chandrika Kumaratunga's most unlikely show of support for the man who destroyed her eye in an attempt to murder her in cold blood, a day before a pervious election….

What's clear is that the Tamil orthodoxy is firmly behind Prabhakaran. This means the majority of the Tamil newspapers as well, barring of course Karuna's own Thamil Alai. The international community is by and large partial to Prabhakaran even though no open commitment has been made yet.

This had made Karuna the "outsider'' for all intents and purposes. But, over time this could change. On the ground, Karuna is well in command of the East. This means among other things that funds to the LTTE Vanni leadership do not accrue from the Eastern province. In other words, as the Eastern province keeps the tax monies raised in the East, the Wanni gets poorer, and the East gets to spend all of the money raised on its own turf, without any orders from the Wanni. Karuna has been showing consistently that he is capable of commanding public support in the East. If he is capable of collecting more funds for his cause as well, he could be financially independent. That makes the danger greater for the Wanni leadership.

Other indications are that Karuna is learning his politics. Karuna's conduits to the UPFA though denied, are hardly deniable anymore. It appears that he tried to cut a deal with the UPFA but on his own terms. When this failed, Chandrika Kumaratunga, definitely the senior partner in that negotiation, showed off her own consummate political capabilities by saying that she will take Prabhakaran's side.

All of it shows that the elections have totally skewed what was the accepted political reality. The equation is entirely different. The monks while splitting the vote, are a contending factor. Karuna while splitting the TNA vote, will be another contending factor. Everything is fluid, and nothing is certain.

As if this were the reason, the people seem to scrupulously avoid this whole can of worms. Election violence is more than a fifty per cent less than at previous polls, in fact very significantly less according to police and independent reports. This is an indication that people are unwilling to take sides in an election that they feel will not decide clearly who will get to form a government -- - even if one side emerges the clear victor. There are too many variables. There are too many X's in the equation.

On the other hand it will be an irony if Ranil Wickremesinghe loses the TNA support he covets, in the matter of forming a government. He is running on a plank of peace. It is this same peace that had led to the unbelievable break-up of the Liberation Tigers. Peace has brought about some tangible result from a Sri Lankan state point of view: a Tiger torn apart. But yet, this peace threatens to split the TNA vote. Ranil Wickremesinghe is endangered. Prabhakaran is endangered. Their fortunes seem to be somehow tied together for a long time now.

Poll campaigns need to be streamlined
By Harinda Ranura Vidanage
As the UNF and the FA publicity campaigns began an intense battle to win the cherished vote from the public it seems that the campaign directors are forgetting that these people who they are addressing are not a kind of blood lusty barbarians. In the battle to get a decent chance of space for public media interaction is quickly depleting as it is difficult for the general public to get a descent chance of viewing any television channel or listening to the radio.

Cramped with images of widows, disabled people, disillusioned youth, the peasant farmer who most of the past regimes tried to fool and dead bodies and bloodied TV screens, this is pure fantasy at its best. For a nation which is trying to heal wounds of past bloodshed and bitter conflict, there was no appeal for this kind of shock therapy from any political party.

As political parties and politicians speak of a media culture and a code of ethics, the very instruments they talk of reforming are used by the same individuals or organizations to violate them. This demonstrates the utter weakness of the civil society in Sri Lanka which is passive as ever. Academics, activists and all other civil society elements at this moment are, either divided on party lines or prefer to stay inactive.

These developments go to show the crisis the political parties are facing at the moment in their campaign activities. Reportedly six corporate PR giants have gained the rights to dominate the media through the campaigns exercise for both parties. The main critique arising from the Freedom Alliance is that its own campaign has become "non existence of a positive campaigning", by depicting drama type campaigns hitting back at the former regime. The campaign does not have a depiction of what difference would an FA government make and what it has in store for the people. The JVP has begun a vigorous project to design its own campaign.

The UNP is also suffering from this drawback with a plethora of agencies in this field , diffusing any attempt at a focussed campaign. Meanwhile President Kumaratunga has appointed a committee to prepare a report on the future cabinet ministers and top public officials in a Freedom Alliance government. The team is headed by senior Presidential advisor Mano Tittawella. They already have drawn up a shadow cabinet of thirty five members, while personal for potential ministerial secretaries and government officials have also been screened.

This time specific qualifications have been added into the screening process and the public officials will have a tough task ahead as both the SLFP and JVP agree in their MOU on power sharing which was not disclosed to the public. Both parties agree to establish a review committee to check the conduct of these officials every two months and make recommendations to the President. The president will be bound by the decisions of this committee which will comprise SLFP and JVP members.

President Chandrika Kumaratunga has taken on an extra burden on her shoulder in the manner of extending sisterly help to her kid brother. As polls intelligence of the SLFP revealed to the President Anura Bandaranaike was not doing well in his campaign and that he might be overtaken by the dynamic Lasantha Alagiyawanne in Gampaha. President Kumaratunga has got herself involved in fulfilling some campaign duties in the way of flying a mercy mission for her brother.

But the most alarming revelation came with the changing of the PA manifesto which was officially launched last week. The SLFP JVP still heads all opinion polls made in the country but they still have a shaky consensus base on policy. The campaign some time back was kicked off with the theme "Victory for the Country" (Dinavamu Sri Lanka) and by the time of launch of the manifesto this theme was replaced with "Country to the Fore" (Rata Perata). Suddenly in the revised manifesto the theme has become a non existent entity.

This in turn may be the hidden factor behind the negative election campaign of the Freedom Alliance drifting without coherence or direction except for decrying its main opponent. But the controversy which has emerged is the shedding of the clause "pre conditions" for negotiations with the LTTE. This was one of the most controversial issues that plagued the welding of the Blue and Red blocs. The question is does the JVP know that suddenly their election manifesto has changed and the pre conditions which they always advocated, and perceived were imperative for any negotiation with the LTTE being dropped from a new revised manifesto.

As many speculate and opinion polls conducted by independent reputed firms show it is likely that the Freedom Alliance will come out victorious from the elections. But in the long term it is the stable and long term policy adherence the people will be looking for. Battered both physically and ideologically from consistent elections euphoria Sri Lankans will be praying for peace and continuity. If multiple dysfunctions due to dissent arise within the Alliance, political instability and chaotic governance may be the result Thus it would be advisable for the Alliance to be to and honest with the people of the country.

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