You can say it again - anything can happen
By Our Political Editor
There have been elections and elections, but there is no question that the coming 2nd April election packs the ingredients for being one of the most crucial one, of the most interesting and one of the most closely watched polls in post-independent Sri Lanka. It will probably be one of the most gory and acrimonious too – but nothing new there, as Sri Lankan elections are known well enough for blood and gore and more.

Several key elements have made these elections highly-watched and though there are hardly any readers who might not have noticed, what these elements are bears some kind of repetition here. There is the JVP factor in the new UPFA alliance. There is the Tiger factor with the LTTE putting its heavyweight behind the TNA in a quest to become top-dog in an elected Sri Lankan parliament - and now there is the new Sangha factor with a Bhikku dominated list being presented by a registered political party. This configuration is dynamite, and if it does not tear the nation apart as some political watchers have predicted Cassandra like already, it will at least provide for good election entertainment. (Though of course some might say that being entertained by a needless and probably destructive election is a profoundly unhealthy tendency by any standard.)

But given that the polls are here for better or for worse, watching its trends may not be just entertaining, it may also be vital to those who want to predict the general direction for this nation in the foreseeable future.

The week saw the UNF becoming more sensitized to the fact that anything is possible in the situation that leads upto an election as vital as this. The President discussed with her political near and dear at President's house, about taking over more Cabinet portfolios -- perhaps the entire Cabinet --before the poll date. When the probability was brought up at Cabinet and Minister Ravi Karunanayake said that the UNF should be more prepared for this eventuality, Minister G. L. Peiris responded by saying that there will be nothing that's surprising about such a takeover. She has done much already he said, that it might be a minor matter for her to "go the whole hog''.

In other words, the UNF will be utterly defenceless in such an eventuality. But it was also agreed that the President is becoming definitely more authoritarian --and is veering towards an absolute megalomaniacal dictatorship. All the UNF planned to do was to go before the people and say "are you going to endorse a dictator or not?''

Of course the UPFA can turn that on the head and say "since when did dictators hold elections?''. Well there have been some, like Saddam Hussein who had elections but with only himself on the ballot. But this is a free election with the question mark hanging over the fact of whether it is going to be fair, with a President using all her powers to put muscle behind her party's campaign machinery.

Between the two major parties, the battle lines already seem to be drawn. It is as predicted in this column a few weeks back, a Referendum on peace. The UNF says a UPFA victory will ensure a slow but sure slide back to war with the LTTE. This has the UPFA incensed, and Lakshman Kadrigamar immediately denounced the Prime Minister for creating a 'fear psychosis' with his prediction of a return to war upon a UPFA victory.

The election is now a reality, but it is still an uncomfortable fact that it is being held at all. The Treasury this week predicted an economic disaster in year 2004, which has now prompted the President to say that Charitha Ratwatte the UNF appointed Treasury Secretary should pack his bags and leave. At least there is one thing that SB Dissanayake and the President can agree upon now.

That being the reality most people may have forgotten that when it was called, this election was seen as something that must come with an explanation. From Presidential quarters there are now at least some solid signs emanating about why this election is being held at all. The President calculated that a national government may have to be formed anyway in the near future. If the UPFA does not get a clear majority (presuming the UPFA wins) a hung parliament will be the result.

If the LTTE backed TNA will be the deciding factor in such a hung parliament, there may be no alternative but for the two major parties to arrive at some arrangement for national government. In this case, the President figured that she should be in a position of strength and not in a position of weakness if she is going to bargain for a nation government. She figures that the UPFA though it might not be able to form a stable government, will still be stronger than what her opposition was in the last parliament. In other words, there is no way but up for her political fortunes with an election, she figures.

It is too early to predict two things which are: a) that there will be a hung parliament b) that the two major parties will then have to come together then, with the UPFA bargaining from a position of strength. But already, these predictions are being made, let us say, in electorally sensitized quarters.

With the nominations in however, there are the usual predictable hijinks, such as Milinda Moragoda (as we sneak previewed a couple of weeks back) saying "vote for me, because I'm coming back to you as a person who wields no power.'' He was planning to do this for a long time now, and his lightning resignation was due to the fact that he would have had nothing to resign from and make the claim, if the President was going to sack everybody in the Cabinet soon! Even to make a show of resigning, you need something to resign from, savvy?

Anuruddhha Ratwatte, a strongman by definition in the 94 PA government, was not even included in the national list last week even though he had been initially sounded out about being among the nominees on that list. But though the President met him earlier in the week, he was finally pacified by Presidential trouble shooter Kadirgamar just minutes to go before the national list was announced.

The rest of the drama was predictable almost, with Fowzie the former PA Minister finally coming on the UPFA Colombo list even though he was dallying with the UNF until the last moment. He had trouble convincing the current UNF national organiser Mahroof for Colombo Central that Fowzie is a name big enough for the organiser to make way for him. These were indeed minor hiccups anyway considering the thunderbolts that are to follow, we are sure, in the rest of this campaign.

Elections: the playing field of the local cow boys
By Harinda Ranura Vidanage
The battle for Colombo has begun, the heavy weights fighting for the preferential votes were for long time drawn from the Green and Blue camps. But the election following April fools is a bit different. Colombo has become the battle field of the big Ws. Weerawansa Vs Wickremesinghe.

As the preferential numbers are released the JVP camp of three stands as Twenty, Twenty One and Twenty Two. Wimal Weerawansa is Twenty One and from the green camp Twenty One belongs to the ace of the UNF in Colombo. It is none other than the constitutionally weakened Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe.

The JVP along with the Freedom Alliance has started a new campaign to boost the image of their fire brand propaganda secretary and has made this battle a personal one. As the Luftwaffe rained bombs on London the red brigade is going to slam Ranil with any sort of projectile suited for a fiery election battle. This whole thing has a third dimension to the total political scenario. If the SLFP helps the JVP through the FA, it means the acceptance of the fact that the Blue camp has always lost its way in Colombo and now they have finally thrown in the towel.

The Greens are being overwhelmed in many departments due to the Freedom Alliance campaign juggernaut. But from the inside of the FA operation "red tide" is in action, the internal dilution of the SLFP by the JVP is now fully operational and successfully functional. If the JVP is directly pitting its members against the governing party it means the set back suffered by the SLFP is immense.

Mangala Samarawerra has also made few changes due to the issue of preferential vote. After living a long time in a more modernized and politically advanced society and always preaching texts from scholars like Anthony Giddens, stars still decide his election strategies back home. Mangala Samaraweera was in action as the number Ten man in the PA list in all elections. But this time the Chandrika Kumaratunga strong man who has a very similar astrological sign configuration of the President has been advised to give up his cherished number ten.

His chief astrological consultant has told him number nine is his lucky number. After going through the list several times and thinking of various ploys to get the new preferential number. Mangala Samaraweera has thought why not "Samaraweera Mangala". So for this election, it will be Samaraweera Mangala who will seek the voters to put a cross over number nine. But there were few instances where President Kumaratunga had to mend a few broken hearts.

First it was of the Kamikaze with a single mission attached to her, Mervyn Silva was so shaken by the fact that A.H.M. Fowzie was incorporated into the FA list at the last moment. He threatened to pull out his candidacy from Central Colombo. But President Kumaratunga summoned him and promised that in the event of defeat he would be included in the FA national list and importantly into the top six of the SLFP who will definitely go in.

It was Susil Premajayantha, Maithripala Sirisena and Mahinda Rajapakse who succeeded in bringing back the former PA strongman. Earlier the UNF was involved in an extensive bidding campaign to convince Fowzie to change sides. Though President Kumaratunga succeeded in extinguishing the fire in Mervyn Silva the vengeance still remains. Silva will shortly release a poster saying "Epa Epa Mata Manapa Epa, UNP Kath Adina evuntath Manapa Epa" though he is contesting elections.

President Kumaratunga had a major problem last week when Ratnasiri Wickramanayke was omitted from the national list. This short but felt paralysis of memory led to Susil Premajayantha the secretary of the FA get a good verbal lashing from the enraged President. As a result of the FA, SLFP will have only six people from the national list going into parliament. She has already decided the six which includes Lakshman Kadirgamar, Mervyn Silva, Wiswa Warnapala, Sathasivam, M.M Zuhair and Lucida Silva wife of Mervyn Silva. The last name came as a surprise to all in the PA, what was the wife of a CBK strongman credited of being a provincial beauty queen just before her marriage be doing in the national list. But this was no joke as it was an element of the grand strategy formulated to bring Chandrika Kumaratunga back into parliament.

Lucida will resign any moment when requested and make her seat available to the President. But with the crisis that came when Ratnasiri's name was omitted from the list the SLFP has decided to give away the seat of Lucida to Ratnasiri Wickramanaike. Thus it means one of remaining five has to sacrifice his seat to President Kumaratunga. When President's counsel Zuhair got the PA ticket Wijedasa Rajapakse lost it and the legal mastermind behind even the drafting of the FA party constitution may not voice his opinions in the chamber midst Diaywanna Oya. UNF also suffered a set back when Thondaman cut short his participation tour of Kandy for the partys campaign rally complaining of a severe stomach ache. But ache has not been in the mid region of the body but more close to the heart. It was a message that alerted him that the PM is travelling with Chandrasekeran in the same vehicle heading towards Kandy.

Both commotion and collusion has gripped the political sphere in the run towards making and unmaking of future parliamentary prospects. The missing out of Ratnasiri Wickramanayake by his own party is the classic example of the tension that all are in this death match of an election. But it's all about containing hyper confusion to make any inroads in this election.

Back to Top

Back to Columns

Copyright © 2001 Wijeya Newspapers Ltd. All rights reserved.