So much damage - so much damage control
By Our Political Editor
The country's fortunes are swinging like a yo-yo between hope and desperation. Some call it hope others call it desperation, but last week it appeared that an election is becoming likely. If an election is not imminent, the President was at least creating the atmosphere and the psychological conditions for having one.

The President, participating in a Radio show last week, berated the Prime Minister for not "working in a spirit of consensus" with her, and said that she will now probably have to explore the next alternative which is to call for countrywide elections.

Both Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and the President were meeting party organisers to keep the election machinery oiled, and this indicated that nobody is taking any chances with a snap poll. The President said earlier, many moons back when her takeover of three government Ministries seemed to boomerang on her, that going for an election and losing may be disastrous. But now she has cast those apprehensions aside.

She is also noticing that Premier Wickremesinghe is eyeball to eyeball with her -- but Ranil is not blinking. S. B. Dissanayake, Ravi Karunanayake and many other sworn anti-Chandrika elements in the UNF -- as is well known - were daring the President to make any wrong moves before she took over the 3 ministries. They said: "If you do it we will give you hell.'' They said they will show what real people's power is, what it means to have the Presidential vote slashed, and what it will mean to face anarchy and unrest in the country due to angry UNP protests.

None of these things happened. Now it is well known that Ranil Wickremesinghe wanted a strategy of non- confrontation. Though at least a few called him a weakling for it, the fact is that Ranil Wickremesinghe pursued a strategy of destabilising the President by non-violent strategic means.

Though these means are not exactly Gandhian, they involve, among others the subtle and not so subtle application of pressure via the international community -- in other words Ranil's favourite international safety net. This, of course, involved deploying Prime Minister Wickremesinghe's favourite point man for this kind of business - Minister Milinda Moragoda.

Moragoda met American Assistant Secretary of State Richard Armitage, and Armitage soon issued a statement saying that the President's moves are not good for the country or the peace process. There of course was little or no subtlety in it. If an American Assistant Secretary of State meets a government Minister, and soon after issues a statement castigating the country's opposition led by its President, it leaves room for everyone to say exactly where America's sympathies are. These sympathies then can be seen to be partisan and not genuinely motivated, and this is exactly what the government's ally JVP was saying last week. Armitage's statement is ''dangerous'' said the LTTE. It amounts to a threat, the JVP added.

Milinda Moragoda will not stop at Washington. He is meeting Indian, British and Japanese leaders, to apprise them of the Sri Lankan situation seeking help/application of pressure. Basically, it is an invitation to get involved -- even though the government was saying for everybody to hear that it is going out of its way to ensure that no aid that has been pledged to the country is withheld.

But if the government was steadily working the international front it did not want somebody to sneak in and pull the rug from under its feet while that was happening. There are sneak attacks everywhere on the government - - or so the government has been advised.

One is the arousal of the nationalist (Sinhala/Buddhist) sentiment by interested parties, particularly the JVP, according to government strategists. They believe that there are political forces which want to fan the flames of Buddhist paranoia regarding unethical conversions, etc. To this end, the government did its best last week to put the lid on any possible trouble that may result as a consequence from the fasting group of Buddhist monks opposite the Buddha Sasana Ministry. This writer saw that the mood opposite the Buddha Sasana Ministry was going from lukewarm to volatile last week, with various fire breathing monks talking to the mike while the "death fast" was going on, and launching open attacks on the so-called Christian proselytization movements. The attacks, if not in fact inflammatory, were certainly bordering on the inflammatory.

Bad form, the government thought, and immediately deployed its damage control men in the form of Karu Jayasiriya and W. J. M. Lokubandara to do the best in repair work. First, Lokubandara was sent as an advance man to calm things down and create the conditions for a diplomatic onslaught. Lokubandara arrived at the site, and made some comments that seemed to make things a little cosier in a loaded atmosphere.

But the the monks made their demands clear, and the Ministers went to work. By Tuesday, they were armed with a draft that was meant to be of legislation to be enacted soon, that will ban unethical conversions. This draft was given to the fasting monks, and by Wednesday there was no sign near the Buddha Sasana Ministry that a fast or any public event ever took place there. The subject of religious conversions was to come up again, at a New Year's kiribath party held at Temple Trees, where the consensus was that there should be a short sharp exercise to ensure that there is no religious rancour in the country due to the work of some rabble rousing elements.

The government badly wants no blot on its copybook, particularly when there is now a solid indication that the JVP and PA will tie the knot soon - perhaps mid January, auspicious times etc., all coming into place.

The LTTE is unwilling to let the situation slip from its own grasp either. For instance, its presence -- and its backing of the UNF through the Tamil National Alliance - -- almost seems to ensure that there will be a UNF government for sometime to come, even if there is an election. Under those circumstances, the LTTE made it clear through Anton Balasingham its chief ideologue in London that there is no way out but for the government to see an end to the crisis before resuming peace talks.

But in the meantime there seemed to be a Cold War of sorts that was enacted between India and the LTTE, with the release of a document that claimed that dissenting TNA leader Anandasangaree's life is under threat. Many see this document as having the sponsorship of India --and if so, the LTTE was again seeing India as a pesky giant of a pest. Therefore, the LTTE further tried to mend fences with India, by adopting various conciliatory stances, but this seems to be a fence that never mends. The LTTE wants the TNA for instance not to blow its top with the Indian leadership, and to handle any issues concerning India with finesse and a delicate touch. India maybe ready to dole out funds for a new airstrip in Jaffna, but that's certainly not with any love for the LTTE….

JVP's ideology overwhelms SLFP
By Harinda Ranura Vidanage
The Central committee of the SLFP approved the final draft of the Memorandum of Understanding to be signed between the JVP and the SLFP a few weeks back. The ultra secret document is a controversial political text advocating a perestroika of the existing political system within a mechanism of a cultural revolution.

The title of the fourteen-paged document is quite alarming and signals the SLFP submission to a more dominant ideology. In other words the SLFP has fallen under the spell of the JVP. The document runs for Twelve Articles with spaces for three signatories including authorization by the PA, JVP and the SLFP. "For the Establishment of a Patriotic and Populist Rule" says the boldly inserted header of the document.

The analysis of the header itself shows the hypnotist effect the JVP has had on the SLFP. Even while the talks between the JVP and the SLFP were progressing the JVP spearheaded the formation of the Desha Hiteshi Jathika Viyaparaya or Patriotic National Front.

The document focuses on three main areas. It extensively discusses a new economic structure for the country, secondly it advocates a type of cultural revival and finally an alternative and controversial thinking on the national question. The document proposes an altogether new type of negotiation with the LTTE and addresses the SLMM and the LTTE as share holders of the same project.

Article 1 of the MOU advocates the establishment of a national economy and criticises the dependent economic structure due to maintenance of links with international financial organizations. Article 2 reiterates the critique of the dependent economic structure and deeply criticises the economic policies adhered according to international financial Institutions and lending organizations.

This critique deepens alarmingly as Western states have become the target of attack. The existing economic relations with these states are presented by the document as methodologies of fulfilling the interests of powerful Western states. The more alarming aspect to all these is the hostility it has shown to the opening up of the country to imports of foreign products. This is an outright critique of the import liberalization which even Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga accepted even on her ascendancy to power in 1994.

Article 3, is a severe onslaught on the Norwegian-backed Monitoring Mission in Sri Lanka. The text uses the terms " LTTE and the SLMM", the effect is to create a vision of two stakeholders in one issue. While Article 4 takes on the UNF regime it defines the current system as "going for an anti democratic one party dictatorship". Article 5 slams the open economy system adopted by the country.

Article 6 advocates the reshaping of international relations of Sri Lanka and the work programme to form a national plan of action and building a national alliance is stressed up to Article 9. Article 10 is one of the most significant articles. The "Five Great principles" of the new alliance is unveiled. The SLFP was earlier hinting that there would be a remake of the five forces united by S.W.R.D. Bandaranaike.

A comprehensive analysis of the document reinforces the key observation made earlier on how the SLFP has been manhandled into the submission of the red faction.

Subsection one of article ten calls for the replacement of the existing economic strategies with deep rooted economic strategies giving priority to local production and local commerce. The call here is for foreign investment only on the basis of equal benefit. The gist of the critique is on preventing the integration of the Sri Lankan economy to the international economy. The significance behind this text is the unbelievable paradigm shift that the SLFP has acquired in its economic policies. Never in the modern context has the SLFP shed its economic policies and sacrificed its value embedded identity been diluted to a host ideology. The impact that it can have on the party will be in the highest magnitude.

The document further goes on to emphasise the notion of "national economy", the word is extensively used throughout the document. The term was originally coined by Gunadasa Ameresekera and championed by the "national conscience" movement but borrowed later by the JVP. The JVP used this term in their literature as a counter pose to the notion of "open economy". The SLFP-JVP MOU is an attempt to process the rejection of the open economic project.

Subsection two of Article 10 is a hyper controversial statement as it is a policy declaration by the two parties but with an inbuilt contradiction. The article introduces the solution proposed by SLFP and the JVP to the ethnic conflict. The statement goes " While SLFP and JVP believe that providing all nationalities their rights on the basis of equality and consolidating democracy the problem can be solved. With SLFP believing that this aim can be achieved through power sharing within a United State, the JVP believes that the goal can be achieved through decentralization of power within a Unitary State."

There is a stark contradiction in the statement as the SLFP harps on the line of devolution of power and a concept of a United States while the JVP advocates a limited power sharing concept mainly related to local governance structure in decentralization and emphasises the unitary state concept. The bottom line is that even after extensive talks the parties are still unable to reach a common consensus on a possible solution to the ethnic conflict.

Analysing this issue from President Kumaratunga's corner it will be a major setback to her line of thinking. She was insisting the provisions included in the 2000 Constitutional proposals would be based to formulate a solution to the ethnic conflict even if the alliance was to be signed. This signals that even the SLFP has had to abandon the concept of "Autonomy" which was a critical element needed to carry on the peace talks with the LTTE. This is evidence of the force of the gravitational pull of the JVP that has shattered the loose armour of the SLFP. This subsection is quite critical as it sets out the parameters for negotiations with the LTTE. The concept of "Fair Conditions" is incorporated into any negotiation that is to be taken up by the new alliance. This is quite significant as "Pre-Conditions" will not be an ideal set of boosters on a negotiation launch pad. Subsection three advocates the setting up of independent commissions for a much needed democratisation process.

Subsection four is another controversial element as it reminds anybody who is familiar with leftist literature especially of the mutated Marxist concepts of Pol Pot and Idi Amin. This particular text is a soft blend of this mutation. The text goes as "To Prevent the current sharp decline in social morality and to direct the country towards a cultural revival on the basis of our own historical and ethical values and the intensification of these values."

The document ends with a pledge bearing the marks of JVP rhetoric in establishing a patriotic society and to protect these values even sacrificing one’s life. The term "Desha Hiteshi" is also used extensively in the whole document. The terms "National Economy", "Patriotism" are used to padding in the document showing the red domination of the whole affaire. The JVP has gained hugely in this marriage proposal and its terms of conditions while the more heavier partner is overwhelmed by its counter part.

It will be the first time that the SLFP will be in a political alliance where it had to give up the position of chairmanship to a constituent party. The SLFP has moved considerably away from its position of moderate modernistic party bowing to the pressure exerted by the JVP. As internal revolts are brewing within the SLFP challenging the unprecedented bow down of the party leadership, the clock is ticking for the events of the last action sequence to take place.

If the alliance is struck, under any condition the President will be forced to go for an election as that is the ultimate demand of the reds. Secondly the UNF is also contributing to pushing the President for an election because of their paradoxical approach to dealing with her. By advocating the clash of mandates by the government the President will be left with no option but to go for a fresh round of elections.

Also Nimal Siripala Silva has been heard supporting the pro election camp in the SLFP. Nimal is known as the weather man in the SLFP. A person who is very close to Chandrika Kumaratunga, he is the one to look for forecasts.

This was revealed by another senior gentleman in the SLFP. Though rattled by recent developments the UNP is also gearing up for elections. The UNF money-making machine has already started its motors and the pumps are in full sway trying to suck in as much cash as possible. This may be the reason why suddenly a host of a New Year’s Eve party held at the Colombo Swimming Club opposite Temple Trees took a delegation of top businessmen to wish Prime Minister Wickremesinghe.

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