Political Column

Political Column

The talks end in a stalemate - polls next?
By Our Political Editor
The talks between President Chandrika Kumaratunga and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe yielded nothing in terms of settling the so called constitutional crisis that erupted after President Kumaratunga took over three Ministries of government.
It looks now that the talks in fact made the crisis worse. Prime Minister Wickremesinghe offered to hand over the ''leadership of the peace process" to the President, but the President was not biting. Instead she made an offer for the creation of a portfolio of Deputy Minister of Defence, but the Prime Minister was not listening.

Instead of any resolution on the immediate national crisis, there was a venting of general feelings, about how badly the state media treated the President (her version) and how the media is very independent and operates on its own (his version.)
So, even though there was no resolution of the national crisis, it appeared that the general shape of how things happened in the last few weeks when the President made her moves, was beginning to clearly unravel.

The President was apparently under the impression that her supporters had tapped the vast reservoir of UNP back bench MPs. But this was not to be. She was unable to form a government of her own, and she is now also unable to reverse the moves that she made by taking over three key portfolios without adding to the confusion.

Takeover bid
Those who goaded her on to stage her takeover bid of the three key Ministries, were therefore now already operating on PLAN #2 - the alternate plan. Plan #2 was to form a quick alliance with the JVP, dissolve parliament, and go for elections.

Towards this end, at least a certain coterie of her parliamentary group are pushing her to dissolve parliament on the 19th when Parliamentary sessions are scheduled to recommence. This is also with a view of the possibility that the UNF will table an impeachment motion against her, which of course will effectively tie her hands and make it impossible for her to dissolve parliament.

But Ranil Wickremesinghe's options are limited - - and he knows that elections are among the best of his options. True, he will never be able to gather the kind of majority that will solve all his problems and make the President irrelevant. But it will at least give him a mandate -- a fresh mandate - - that will give him some legitimacy to form a government that can call most if not all of the shots. But in the meantime Ranil Wickremesinghe was playing some of the other cards at his disposal.

Here are a sampling:
Play dead, and get the international community firmly on his side
Ranil Wickremesinghe was looking for all the constitutional options. By doing that, he is courting the moral high ground. By pulling out of the peace process, he is also canvassing the moral high ground.

Constitutional
This is why it appeared quite curious to many people that the Norwegians were pulling out of the peace process at the same time that Wickremesinghe was pulling out of the peace process. To some it appeared that this was quite a synchronised move, to attempt to marginalise the President and make her realise that she had painted herself into a corner, because she would be unable to pursue any peace process on her own.

Stave off the President's National government proposal
The Prime Minister said that anyone is free to enter into a national government with him as the leader, because he commands the majority in parliament. This he said, when he met the President. So far he has been able to keep his parliamentary group quite loyal, and he has been able to keep his options open by not caving in to the cry for a "National government.''

But the President -- who has lost a good deal of the moral high ground due to her pre-emptive move to topple the Wickremesinghe regime, is now deftly making some attempt to recover the moral high ground by pushing for a national government.

Lieutenant
In this, her ablest lieutenant is Mano Tittawella, who is Senior Presidential advisor.
A word about Tittawella here. He was the man who in many ways was closest to the President in her taking over of three Ministries, whereas Presidential hopefuls such as Anura Bandaranaike and Mahinda Rajapakse were out of the loop when the President made this move. Mano Tittawella was definitely in the loop.

By the end of this week, he was in fact making statements to the effect that the ceasefire will be honoured etc., As a champion of business, he was leading the call for a national government -- a call that has always been popular with a business community that is sick and tired of bickering between the two major national political contenders.

The UNF was therefore careful not to lose the moral high ground to the President.
This is for instance why the UNF stalled a move to reconvene parliament by asking the Speaker to do so. It was of course technically the Speaker who had to make that decision about reconvening parliament on a request from its majority. But before matters went to the Speaker for consideration, Rauff Hakeem, the SLMC leader for instance took the very clear stand that it is unwise to pursue something that was clearly unconstitutional ie: asking the Speaker to reconvene parliament when that was clearly the President's prerogative.

The mainstream opposition (JVP and PA) in fact labelled the party leader's meeting summoned by the Speaker to discuss this situation ''unconstitutional.'' However, Messrs Karu Jayasuriya W. J. M Loku Bandara, Rauf Hakeem, R. Sambandan Chandrasekeran etc., met the Speaker to discuss the possibility of his being able to reconvene parliament.

Judicial body
Justice Minister Loku Bandara adduced a rather tortured argument, which was that the parliament was enabled constitutionally as per article 42 to convene as a judicial body, and that the current situation calls for that kind of ''judicial intervention.'' However, the majority of those present, headed by lawyer Sambandan said that this provision was available only when parliament was already in session and not when it was prorogued for some reason.

In the larger calculation meanwhile, the unpopularity of an election at this time was also not lost on Chandrika Kumaratunga. Among those who advised her against a quick-fire election with the much ballyhooed JVP backing was -- guess who? Mano Tittawella of course. Tittawella was only too well aware of the repercussions to the economy as a result of an election, all of which eventually will be laid at the door of the PA and the President.

The World Bank's Peter Harrolds and the IMF's Jeremy Carter, among other top foreign potentates were already cautioning the President against prolonging the current crisis, and in this backdrop it appeared that though an election seemed to be the most attractive way out of the quagmire, it was not the best suited for the President at the current hour.

In fact, she fired this question to those of her parliamentary group who met her early in the week at the President's house. Can we win an election, she thundered.
There were enough to say yes, but at week's end, most in her inner sanctum seemed to have arrived at the position that the provisions of the J. R,. Jayewardene constitution should be used to the maximum to destabilise the UNF without going for an election. In this sense, it was an ongoing constitutional coup, and not a direct showdown by way of polls.

The UNF also in the long run seemed to have scored by this turn of events. In sum, the UNF was in a position to blame the President for the breakdown of the peace process, and the sudden brakes on the economy (not to mention the budget) which means the UNF scored a double whammy. Even though he now looked a lame duck and a head of a lame duck government, Ranil Wickremesinghe was still happy to appear to make something better out of the situation than her opponent.

Twenty four hours that shook Lanka
By Harinda Ranura Vidanage
"It will be a tragic day in the political history of Sri Lanka", an aide at the Presidents house heard Wimal Weerwansa uttering. This is the real "Twenty Four" drama series. The unfolding events took place exactly within 24 hours of 13 November 2003.
As the so close yet too far syndrome had struck the PA-JVP alliance effort again. While the hoodoo couldn't be broken the agony of separation struck the parties, that were desperately trying to seal a vital link. The only link that both parties knew would give them hope of installing an alternative government.

After preparing the MOU, drafting a new constitution for the alliance with commitments being made by both parties, it looked like the Blue Sea would be blended with the Red Sun. As both parties held post mortems of each round of talks they had in the last few months, the SLFP guillotined its own negotiating players. The crime was attempt of sabotage, the justification the survival of the process.
Nimal Siripala Silva was the first to taste the blade while the ever confident Dr Sarath Amunugama followed a little later. Maithripala Sirisena survived because of technical reasons. He was the General Secretary of the SLFP.

"Why are we in hurry to do all this?" erupted Sirisena, "We have to put these to the SLFP central committee", "I must tell these to D.M Jayaratne and the other senior leaders of our party" What ever prompted the out burst from the secretary found its mark.

Sirisena who never favoured an SLFP-JVP alliance nor a great fan of the reds fired a single sniper round in the crucial final meeting with the JVP. It was directed not at the heart but at the spirit of union. In a meeting which was scheduled to start at 7 p.m. but which kicked off two hours later and which went into the midnight a tired and besieged Kumaratunga took the side of her general secretary.

The decision shocked not only the JVP delegation but also the chief component behind the alliance effort Mangala Samaraweera. Though being the target of multiple attacks from both within and outside the party he managed to keep the momentum going by sticking with the JVP always in line to forge an alliance.

Earlier in the day CBK phoned Mangala Samaraweera and asked him to prepare the final documents that would seal the alliance for good. She even asked him to draft a Joint Press release to be sent to all media later in the night after concluding the talks. " Bring me all the proofs of posters and banners that you prepared to demonstrate after signing the alliance", she told him.

President Chandrika Kumaratunga was like a battered destroyer as she felt the pressure from mounting barrages of fire from all directions. The President who addressed the nation confidently a week ago looked a totally different person in the second week. World Bank representatives who met the President earlier in the day pressurized her to keep the peace process on track to ensure further aid. She agreed to this and also she had to agree to further structural adjustment policies that the World Bank was preparing to introduce to Sri Lanka.

As psychoanalysis points out to the dualistic mind a person can possess, Kumaratunga’s dualism began to emerge. As she promised the Prime Minister that she would not dissolve parliament, he guaranteed the non-implementation of impeachment against her.

This understanding became the foundation for the two political rivals to see a common path as a way out from the already volatile situation. But President Kumaratunga continued talks with the JVP to form an alliance which she expressed was critical in the near future for the PA.

JVP took a few steps back by shedding its resistance to form an alliance with the SLFP. The party agreed to tackle the issue of devolution of power as a solution to the ethnic question later on and sign the MOU with the SLFP. But the Red faction had a trick under its sleeve, as it made an outright denunciation to take part in a government the UNF was also a part of.

While the President was under pressure for taking over three ministries her hope of securing fifteen UNF dissident votes to form a government was torpedoed. The SLFP think tank got a message from the UNF dissidents only ten will cross over! As the number strategists began to process the information CBK was five seats short.

The breakdown came as seventy five from the PA. The crossover of Puthrasigamani reduced the PA parliamentarians to seventy six. But the PA was expecting another power SLFP member who was severely ill-treated by the leadership to break ranks and jump overboard. The inclusion of the JVP would make it 91, 2 EPDP members would make them 93 strong while Five from SLMC anti-Hakeem league would still make them fifteen short of the target. With the ten UNF dissidents it would be five short at the end.

As the SLFP core began to melt away from the heat of its internal power struggles, President Kumaratunga begins to see the catastrophe that was unfolding because of her foul play. It seems that help is coming from the most unexpected corner in the political equation. The Green leader seems to be hauling her to keep her drift.

resident Kumaratunga overlooks the red buoy that is floating as she clings to the more stable green craft. The 24 hours and intense drama from scene one World Bank to meeting with the Norwegian delegation, the LSSP, MEP and finally the JVP in the final scene it indeed was a decisive day for all factions in politics of Sri Lanka.

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