Back to the table with a road map?
By Our Political Editor
Minister Milinda Moragoda's American connections need not be reemphasised, but his latest bout of shuttle diplomacy with the Americans indicate that American involvement in the Sri Lankan conflict is marked. Moragoda was in Washington, after launching a book in Greece with the help of the International Democratic Union. He will do a second launch in America as well.

In Washington, he will do some road mapping for the envisaged meeting between US President George W Bush and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, when the latter addresses the UN General Assembly in September of this year. But the more important road mapping, it is learnt is of a different variety. Milinda Moragoda is now engaged, we reliably learn with American input, in hammering out a so called road map for peace.

This road map will follow the ballyhooed road map for peace in Israel and which is said to contain time frames to boot. It also indicates a couple of things. One is that the peace process is now coming almost fully in charge of Milinda Moragoda with G. L. Peiris being left out of the loop. We learn that in fact, some persons working closely with G. L. Peiris had earlier in the week expressed their dissatisfaction that their boss is almost entirely being kept out of the loop in this new 'road mapping' for peace.

The other indication of closer American monitoring of the peace process, is perhaps that the LTTE is closer to coming back to the negotiating table. We caution that there is no direct evidence between an American involvement in the peace process, and the apparent willingness of the LTTE to come back to the negotiating table. But all indications are that LTTE chief Prabhakaran had overridden opposition among his ranks and ruled in favour of returning to the negotiating table soon.

The other indication that there is further American involvement in getting the road map for peace ready was that the Americans are looking to open an office in the North, preferably in Jaffna or in the Wanni. Tamil newspapers have already reported this development, but further to this, there is all indication that the road map for peace with American input is the current strategy of Minister Milinda Moragoda . He had told the Prime Minister that there should be a plan with certain effective deadlines and time tables for talks to succeed. He has been of the view that the talks have so far been ad hoc and without effective time tables and deadlines.

Therefore he has advocated a road map for peace, and there is all indication that this will follow the road map for peace with regard to the Israeli Palestinian conflict in the Middle East -- hence the American input that is expected by Minister Moragoda.

In the case of the Israeli-Palestinian road map for peace, one of the significant issues was that there was also a mandate for 'regime change''. George. W. Bush went on the record saying that Palestinian leadership should change if there was to be effective problem solving in the Middle East. Therefore, Arafat was pushed into the background, and a new Prime Minister took over most of the negotiating on behalf of the Palestinians. Is there a blueprint for any kind of similar regime change at some point with regard to the Sri Lankan conflict? Do the Americans want Prabhakaran out at some point - - or on the contrary will the Americans want the Ranil Wickremesinghe government out at some point?

As of now the question is purely in the realm of hypothesis. There is absolutely noting that has so far been said by the plotters of the road map for peace about a regime change. But, there can nevertheless always be speculation. The Americans or nobody else has spoken of a "regime change" for instance within the LTTE. But to hear the Sri Lankan opposition, is there any indication that there is a move for regime change on the Sri Lankan side?

The Americans or the planners of the road map have not said it -- but the opposition last week gave indications that they are willing to talk to anybody including the LTTE to solve the conflict. Pulidevan, an LTTE ranker close to Prabhakaran met some opposition MPs, and Sarath Amunugama, the spokesman for the PA said that there is always room for negotiations between the PA and the LTTE despite the views of the PA being at variance with those of the government on the peace issue.

The Prime Minister in the meanwhile is scheduled to visit London, and Minister Milinda Moragoda will be his advance man. He will make all arrangements for the scheduled meeting with Tony Blair and Jack Straw at 10, Downing Street, but in the meanwhile, there was a meeting that was sought between Moragoda and Anton Balasingham in London.

However, this meeting was later put off on the instructions of the Prime Minister. Balasingham also didn't want to meet Moragoda anyway. The Prime Minister's position has been, according to informed sources, that the ball is now in the LTTE's court, and that the LTTE should effectively respond to the Interim Administration proposal put forward by the government.

Even though the LTTE rejected these proposals earlier in the week, the Prime Minister is pushing the position that there is a broader consensus on an Interim Administration which in itself can be the subject of discussion. The LTTE has taken up the position that there needs to be something solid about an Interim Administration on the table before they agree to get back to the negotiating table.

The Prime Minister hopes that there will be a meeting point between these two positions. Therefore he has not seen the need to have any pre-emptive meeting with Balasingham in London.

The assassination nation
While the LTTE seemed to be bent on eliminating more of its political opponents (such as Subathiran of the EPRLF Vartharajah wing last week) all this seemed strangely to be overshadowed in the South because of the killings of more Provincial Councillors.

The killing of PA Provincial councillor Sunil Mendis has put the opposition in a state of total agitation -- and last week, there was nothing said about the LTTE killings because the opposition was of the view that the government was killing with more resolve than the LTTE. MP Anura Priyadarshana Yapa for instance said at the Parliamentary Group meeting of the PA that there has to be a concerted effort to 'internationalise' the issue and bring the UNF culture of political killings to the notice of the international community.

Finally opposition leader Mahida Rajapakse said that what should be done at the moment is to inform the diplomatic community in Colombo that the PA politicians at various levels are under threat of being wiped out by the UNF government.

Though there was no evidence that the 'government' was behind the killings, the smuggling of a coffin into the parliamentary chamber and the accompanying slogans made it clear that the opposition is blaming the government entirely for the so- called wave of killings.

In parliament, the opposition staged a protest dressed in black Tee-shirts and other black casuals, to underline the point that there is no point in respecting parliamentary niceties when there is a direct threat on the lives of PA politicians.

A lot of the flak was also aimed at John Amaratunge Minister of Interior, and there was a general condemnation of 'John'' in the harshest of language. The Speaker however who seems to have had some inkling of the coffin fiasco that was about to erupt, adjourned sessions and said later that there was a dangerous precedent being set because there was a serious threat to security being posed by this kind of smuggling of various things into parliament.

The Prime Minister had other issues on his mind, however, and was not entirely put out by the PA campaign. He met 11 TNA MPs in the Prime Minister's office in parliament, and told them that it is upto the LTTE to come back to the negotiating table because an Interim Administration can be considered given. He said that an Interim administration can be hammered out as long as the LTTE returns to the negotiating table. He also added that the SLMM report should be the final word on the LTTE ship that was fired on by the Sri Lankan Navy.

This was in response to a query by MP Sambandan who said that the attack on the ship was wrong and unprovoked. The Prime Minister also refused to comment on the issue of local government elections in the North and the East.

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