The agreement on striving for a federal solution 'founded on internal self determination founded on a federal structure' came fast on the heels of Prabhakran's Heroes Day speech which claimed that war will be the only option, if self rule was not granted in the Tamil 'homelands' in the North and the East.

The federal call also comes amidst controversy generated by the LTTE's establishment of courthouses and police stations, an issue which has been dealt with extensively in separate columns and opinion pieces elsewhere in this newspaper.

Anton Balasingham the LTTE negotiator statements have sallied between the positively optimistic and the absolutely frightening (see box this page) which has not helped to clarify the developing situation. Anton Balasingham said there are two
states in Sri Lanka, the Sinhala state and the Tamil state, addressing the Heroes Day celebrations in London. However, he has subsequently clarified his position, and all of it has not helped in adding to the confusion.

Prabhakaran made things clear in his heroes days speech, which is basically a warning that if the Taimil people are denied the right to self-determination and required autonomy is not granted in the 'Tamil homeland areas', there will be no alternative but to secede and form a separate Tamil state. There is certainly no question of a renunciation of war under all circumstances - war is what the Sri Lankan nation will get if the LTTE does not get what it wants. This position it must be remembered is consistent with what the Prabhakaran - Balasingham duo said in Kilinochchi at the press conference in Tiger territory held in April of this year.

This aspect, which shows that the concern is with the rights of Tamil people being in variance with the statements of Anton Balasingham, such as the one quoted in BBC news, which says that the two police forces of the government of Sri Lanka and the LTTE can seek integration within a final settlement.

Federalism as the way out was mooted in Oslo in almost eerie coincidence with the Wickremesinghe administrations completion of one year in government. Anton Balasingham has expressed concerns in London that all the Tamils are behind self-rule for the Tamils even though the Sinhala State is divided between 'racist elements' and the Wickremesinghe government, which seeks to grant autonomous self rule to the Tamil people. The negotiators in Oslo seemed to have been determined to place something that is tangible on the table in terms of initiating a real dialogue towards a negotiated political settlement.

But 'racial elements' or not , Sri Lankans in the so -called South of the country seemed to be unclear how the LTTE could persue a policy of establishing more courthouses and police stations and call for a solution within the parameters of one Sri Lankan nation. The apprehension in Colombo soon after Prabhakaran's Heroes Day speech is whether Prabhakaran is keeping an escape clause alive by saying that war may be the outcome if there is no settlement to their own liking. The apprehension in Colombo at least among certain quarters was that Prabhakaran has totally rejected the concept of a pluralistic polity in which the Sinhala, the Tamil and the Muslim people live together. Rejecting the possibility of a pluralistic society in this way, Prabhakaran has also not mentioned anything about the fact that there would be a possibility of de-mobilizing a standing Army and Navy.

These doubts coupled with the fact that there were confusing signals with the pro-active establishment of a judicial and law enforcement system run by the LTTE no doubt created certain apprehensions among those who received, cautiously, the news from Oslo that there may be some signs of the resolution of the long standing national crisis.

On a first reading there was reason to be optimistic that a concrete declaration had been made of finding a way out of the problem, by the agreement between the two sides on internal self-determination, and the establishment of a federal system of government.

Anton Balasingham has also made some revelations in his Mahaveer day speech in London that the situation in the world is changing which is why the LTTE needs to rethink its position. He said: " I would like to clarify some points in the reader's message. The world order is changing and relations between world countries are changing. This is a new era and we have to take forward our struggle accordingly. This is not a war only in Vanni. This has reached the international forum. After September 11 last year there is a change, in the glance of world countries.

"The difference between freedom struggle and terrorism is erased. Freedom struggles are named as terrorist attacks. We have to be careful since the world has failed to realize the truth. World countries are joining hands to wipe out terrorism. Tigers are also listed in their list of terrorist organizations. Therefore we have to take every move diplomatically.''

Does this mean that the Tigers are keeping the armed struggle on hold until there is a let-up in the international outlook against organizations such as the LTTE? Will the LTTE revert back to war when the conditions are more conducive to it?

To some extent the apprehensions were compounded by the fact that the last paragraph of the heroes day speech of LTTE leader Velupillai Prabhakaran had been left out in the press release of the LTTE which carried the English version. This last paragraph says:

The historie sacrifices of our great heroes will stand as witness for truth and lead us. And it is definite that we will achieve our objective by following the said truth.

"The thirst of the Tiger is the Nation of Tamil Eelam."

That last sentence within quotes is however only a battle cry that has been uttered with all Prabhakaran's earlier speeches. But, the fact that this last sentence was left out in its entirety in the LTTE English translation sows some confusion as to why it was left out, even in the LTTE's own website. But perhaps it does not convey anything that is substantially different in meaning - but even so, the fact that the Thirst of the Tiger is the Nation of Tamil Eelam was left out of the English text in the LTTE website seems to cast the apprehension that the LTTE does not want to show it to the English reading public - particularly the international community. The LTTE does not want even a whiff of an idea about a Tamil nation to reach the ears of the international community, but does not observe this caution in theTamil language version.

On the questions whether the Sinhala nation is showing any divisions it appears that there certainly were some. (Read our separate stories about the rift in the Sri Lankan Muslim Congress between the Athaullah faction and the Rauff Hakeem faction.) However, it appears that for the moment this factionalism could be kept under a lid.

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