Trite it may seem, but that's the line that seems to best fit when one wants to capture the developing political mood in Sri Lanka. The UNF has some options, and has staked its bets on a peace process that seems to have acquired a momentum of its own. The PA has the Executive President who is the fount of power under the 77 Republican constitution. The people are sovereign, and though they are empowered to decide who rules only at election time, it is difficult to think that either of these parties can form a government at any time in defiance of the prevailing national mood. So, who will win, or will it be a draw?

A drawn game it will be if the current status quo prevails and the UNF remains in power with the current cohabitative arrangement intact and unmolested. Theoretically, the PA has all the power to disturb that arrangement. The President and only the President can dissolve parliament, and theoretically, Ranil Wickremesinghe cannot lead his party to an election even if he wants to. But the President is compelled to dissolve parliament, if the Prime Minister requests her to do so by resolution.

Hypothesize that parliament is dissolved today. (The President cannot dissolve parliament until the UNF's year is up, but assume she can do so for sake of hypothesis.) Hypothesize also that Ranil Wickre-mesinghe decides to "dissolve'' parliament today. Not that he can do it in terms of the constitution, but he is constitutionally empowered to ask the President to do so by way of resolution. The outcome of any election held thereafter would depend on who exactly calls for the dissolution of parliament - Ranil or Chandrika. Sri Lankan voters are heavy on perception. "Perception' is their reading of who is calling the shots at the time, a given time. If Ranil is seen to be calling the shots, it will be the UNF that has the edge, and the reverse will be true if Chandrika is perceived to be stronger.

Constitutionally speaking, Ranil Wickremesinghe's options aren't many. He can either secure the numbers in parliament to change the constitution, or he can move an impeachment motion that will restrain the President from dissolving parliament. The President on the other hand can dissolve parliament at the end of the UNF's year, and call for an election. Or, she can remove the Prime Minister, and ask someone else from her own party to form the government.

If the UNF decides that it's better to play for a "draw' by continuing the arrangement of cohabitation, Ranil and his government will literally be at the mercy of the President after the UNF completes an year. That will be a 'draw' in which the stumps are never drawn. All Ranil Wickemesinghe can do is to buy time, by moving an impeachment motion to keep the President from ending the life of this parliament and calling a poll. This leaves Ranil Wickremesinghe only one really solid option - unless he can think of any that most people can't think of which is unlikely. That's the option of calling for an election NOW.

He can ask the people for a two-thirds majority, explaining that periodic elections will be the only outcome if he doesn't get one. He can dangle the peace process before the masses, say many other things in favour of his government, none of which will guarantee a two-thirds - but will with some luck give him sufficient numbers to provide him with two-thirds with the minorities counted in. This way he will finally be able to change the constitution, and serve out his term without having to lose sleep on being kicked out from upstairs by an Executive President. If he wins without a two thirds majority he will be back to square one, but he will have an year in which he can do many things like induce more crossovers. He runs the remote risk of in fact losing the election - but that's unlikely as his Cabinet will be the interim government in the run up to the elections, and will have services of state machinery and state media to boot.

In all of these prognostications, there is an entity, which any NGO civil society wallah will call -in that syrupy NGO jargon that says nothing and everything - 'a stakeholder'. Ugly word, but stakeholder would do for the moment. The most important stakeholder in all of this, the people of Sri Lanka who are constitutionally sovereign, will play some part in deciding their own fates, a small humble part in their resplendent sovereignty.

Theoretically, Chandrika Kumarutunga could have at any time dissolved the Ranil Wickremesinghe Cabinet, without dissolving parliament, and ask her own brother, or some other PA leader to form a government. But, she wasn't able to get the parliamentary numbers, and she would have more importantly, feared the wrath of the sovereign. The voter wouldn't have liked her if she did that soon after they elected the UNF into office.

She will have to consider the feelings of the sovereign, even if she decides to dissolve parliament in a few months time when she is qualified to do so. She will have to think not just about the letter but about the spirit of the constitution.

But, she could point out that there is nothing wrong with dismantling a UNF government after one year, if the UNF did the same thing to the PA an year ago. The only answer to that could be that the PA had, at that time, already been in power for seven years, even though the new second term PA administration that fell last year was only one year old. On the other hand, the UNF government is young by any reckoning. It could be argued that it is not proper to dismiss the UNF without giving it half a chance.

Sri Lanka cannot afford in any sense of the word to go the way of Italy, which had some 40 governments in 30 years. The Prime Minister can say this to the electorate, and go for elections now, hoping to reach the pivotal two thirds with a little help from the minorities. He can then try to change the constitution in a way that the President cannot sack his government.

Currently, UNF may be committing slow hara kiri by seeking accommodation. There doesn't seem to be a chance that the President will agree to get rid of her own constitutional prerogative to dissolve parliament - but that's what the UNF is trying to convince her to do. The UNF can also induce crossovers, but that's what the party has been pursuing from the time of last year's election without success.

It doesn't seem credible, but the truth seems to be that the UNF woke up to its new government's aching vulnerability far too late. Tyronne Fernando has said an election will only be a last resort. The UNF might be compelled to take that last resort, unless Ranil is some amazing political contortionist - a political Houdini who can find his way out of any complicated confining trap.

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