How Ranil and Co., are waging peace

There is nothing wrong with this; peace doesn't have to be, on the one hand, a matter of patronage. (Something that the Sri Lankan government "grants'' the wretched people of the North and East, taking heed of their long suffering existence.)

Technocrats call it, in their own sugar coated sickly sweet managerial lingo a "win- win '' peace. It sounds as if peace is something you get out of a book on "10 Ways to Manage and Motivate People at Work.''

The UNF's technocratic peace is a carefully worked peace. It doesn't take cognizance, so much, of the "vision-thing.'' It's a peace that basically needs to be negotiated in "you scratch my back – I'll scratch yours'' terms. Basically, the UNF boys want to tell Prabhakaran "you can have a Majestic City shopping complex in Velvettituhurai, if you and your boys agree for a peace.'' Well, not quite, but something like that.

Since it is a peace that lacks the "vision-thing'' there are hardly any expectations or any heady notions that there will be a blissful peace that will eventually materialize. This is quite different from the Kumaratunge peace bid, in 1994, when Jaffna was a sea of smiling Kumaratunge memorabilia (key tags buttons and what not.) Besides, Ranil Wickremesinghe on a key-tag is positively inconceivable.

The UNF wagers, so to speak, that Prabhakaran too is in a mood to have a shopping complex in Velvettiturai. Basically, the UNF's technocratic squad thinks that Prabhakaran is tiring of waging a war that keeps him on the run. They wager that his heroes day speech is a "concession'' that the cry for separatism is not viable anymore — that it's a call that has had it's day.

Basically, the UNF wants to "Coca-colonize'' the Wanni. It was C. A. Chandraprema, who identified the core political dynamic of the UNP, in his book "kola pata samajaya.'' By Coca-colonizing the Wanni, the UNF thinks that a kola pata samajaya can be created in the now war torn and pockmarked North and East. Instead of turning guns into plough-shares, the UNP wants to turn guns into Coke vending machines.

Basically, turning guns into anything not lethal is a good thing — though some may ask pointedly whether it's a Coke vending machine or a T 56 that is more lethal — at least when these are aimed, respectively, at society at large. 

When one looks at Israel, one would think that the Coke for guns dream is a pipe dream. But , some would say, look at the Balkans, and there are some merits in thinking that guns, will, slowly and gradually, turn into Cokes. (In rebuilding Afghanistan, now pulverized, the US apparently wants to follow the Balkan or Mozambican example.)

In Israel, the Palestinian psyche didn't seem to be ready to drink Coke at any cost. Being long oppressed by the Israeli state, the Palestinians have got themselves a life, almost, in the Intifada. Intifada has more appeal than Coca Cola in the Gaza Strip. Throwing stones is still what Palestinian kids do to keep hip — when people are dying two to an hour, Coke does lose it's appeal.

So, the basic calculation that the UNF's technocratic lobby, along with the business hands that are cheerleading the peace effort from behind, have to calculate is whether or not the Wanni is now too far gone for Coca Cola. Is the Wanni too awash in the crimson of blood, to be converted into a green kola pata samajaya?

Perhaps the Wanni is too baked and, what would the technocratic boys say, "backward?'', for Coca Cola. But, does the Wanni want an economy, be it of the betel-into-chewing-gum variety, or anything, as opposed to a never ending fight on it's hands?

The technocratic squad calculates that the Wanni wants an economy and wants it soon. But, the question is, whether Prabhakaran also wants an economy for the Wanni, whether of the Coca Cola or betel-into-chewing-gum or whatever variety, or whether he is more impressed by the Eelam war, as much as the Palestinian street kids are more impressed with the Intifada than with Coke?

This is where the lack of the vision-thing in the UNF's technocratic squad looks like a big minus in the Wickremsinghe peace bid. This peace on offer doesn't seem to have the ring of "self determination'' in it. What it says is, in the Wanni, you can all be self-made men, if you agree to Coca Colonize it in exchange for giving up the guns.

Is Prabhakaran in the mood for it? He did say in his heroes day speech, something to the effect that the LTTE is prepared to give up its bid for separatism. This could mean one of many things. He may be suckering Sri Lanka for the n'th time. He may be tactical – a little peace, a little war, here and there – before pulling off the final Eelam. Or, he may be wanting something. A chance at being a Yasser Arafat II, a respectable war-monger? Or maybe, just maybe, an economy in the Wanni?