The Political Column

Build-up for big show

That she left the country after taking the unusual step of appointing Prime Minister Ratnasiri Wickremanayake to act for her gave added grist to the rumour mills which churned out various stories and topics, which ranged from peace talks to personal matters.

While some reports said she was heading towards Pakistan others said she was scheduled to arrive in London via Singapore. Some of the wildest rumours among those most prone to wishful thinking, said that she had gone for good.

It was only later in the day that state television Rupavahini announced that she was in London to attend the graduation ceremony of her daughter who has completed her medical degree in Cambridge.

The appointment of an acting president was unprecedented. It was the first time since the promulgation of the 1978 Constitution that such a step had been resorted to. Neither President J. R. Jayewardene nor his successor R. Premadasa took this measure when they left the country, probably because they felt insecure with such a move.

Mr. Jayewardene dared not even to appoint an acting defence minister in his absence except for once when he and National Security Minister Lalith Athulathmudali were both out of the country. On that occasion, Prime Minister Premadasa acted as the defence minister.

That President Kumaratunga decided to appoint an acting president shows she was not suffering from an insecurity complex.

But the main opposition UNP gave a different twist to the unusual move, interpreting the constitutional provisions partially. The UNP's Assistant Leader Gamini Atukorale said the appointment of an acting president showed the President was unable to perform her duties as the President.

In the meantime, a group of UNP MPs wanted to bring a resolution in Parliament to confirm the position of Ratnasiri Wickremanayake as acting president.

Is this possible? The only occasion Parliament could act is when the office of the President falls vacant within the term of his or her office.

One such occasion was the death of the incumbent President Premadasa whereby Prime Minister D.B. Wijetunga was appointed to act in the position and subsequently elected by Parliament as the President.

But the UNP is unable to do this even if this is possible, because the UNP's 'no-confidence' motion is against Prime Minister Ratnasiri Wickremanayake's government. 

Though the motion is aimed at the government of President Kumaratunga, the task of defending it in parliament lies with the Prime Minister. If the UNP passes a resolution confirming Mr. Wickremanayake as the President, they would not be able to bring in the motion of 'no-confidence' against him, since it would be contradictory in nature.

Mr. Wickremanayake, the acting President, should have entrusted the Prime Ministerial duties to another member of the Cabinet. However, this has not been adhered to for reasons best known to them.

Another question that begs an answer is why did the President resort to this constitutional provision of appointing an acting president only on this occasion. In April this year, when she left the country for a one-month European tour, she did not do so. A probable answer could be that she does not want to be a party to certain tough decisions, which may be necessary for the survival of her government. By appointing Mr. Wickremanayake as acting president, the President had placed him in a position of strength to negotiate with any party or take any action to overcome the crisis the government faces. 

Another explanation is that given the seriousness of the political crisis, the President would have thought that it would be unwise for her to leave the country without making an acting appointment.

What is clear is that she is determined to defeat the UNP sponsored no-confidence motion, which is expected to be taken up for debate on July 16, 17 and 18.

The President is said to be exploring every possible avenue to consolidate the government's position. Some analysts saw the President's invitation to Opposition UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe for talks on the peace process as part of her strategy to weaken the opposition resolve to go ahead with the no-confidence motion.

Mr. Wickremesinghe's meeting with the President has created difference of opinions in the UNP ranks. While one section opposed the meeting, others wanted the leader to tell the people the perilous situation the country has fallen into. The latter group also opposed a joint statement by the two leaders and suggested the UNP leader should have issued a hard-hitting statement, putting the government on the defensive.

Another group within the UNP is of the view that the battle should be fought in parliament and backs the leader's decision to meet the President.

Mr. Wickremesinghe is a good tactician though he seems to be unlucky when it comes to elections and contests, say many analysts and even some of his critics. They also believe that the time has come for the UNP to grab power under the leadership of Mr. Wickremesinghe. In this exercise, the party membership, which was only a couple of months ago was divided over a leadership battle, has rallied round Mr. Wickremesinghe in a bid to topple the government. Meanwhile, the UNP is also exploring every avenue to get the no-confidence motion passed in parliament. For this purpose it is trying to woo parties such as the CWC and the JVP. Three Tamil parties with a total strength of nine seats, have backed the motion, accounting for 97 aye votes. It can be assumed that the seven SLMC MPs who crossed over to the opposition will also back the motion, taking the figure to 104. To pass the motion, the opposition will still need nine votes. It is this situation that has pushed the JVP into an all-important position of government maker or breaker.

But with the JVP swinging both ways, the UNP is also exploring the possibility of effecting a few defections from the ruling PA. The UNP's deputy leader Karu Jayasuriya along with Gamini Atukorale and Ravi Karunanayake are on the move to woo PA members and they claim about ten PA members have pledged their support for the motion.

These UNPers claim that the PA leadership, including the President, was aware of the UNP moves. The President prior to her visit abroad held a series of talks with her confidants and senior ministers to consolidate the government's position. She wanted all ministers and MPs who were overseas back in the country immediately to face the crisis. 

Messages were sent to Ministers Mangala Samaraweera and S. B. Dissanayake, asking them to cut short their foreign tours and come back. Minister Dissanayake was in Malaysia when he got the message. He left the country after he and the President had reportedly clashed over matters relating to party affairs and an inquiry into the Samurdhi bank.

Prime Minister Ratnasiri Wickremanayake and Minister Mahinda Rajapakse were among the people who telephoned Mr. Dissanayake and urged him to come back and actively engage himself in mapping out strategy to defeat the UNP-backed no-confidence motion.

Soon after Minister Dissanayake's arrival in the country, several ministers visited his Stanmore Crescent residence, virtually turning it into a main operation centre.

Mr. Dissanayake's entry into the fray allayed fears entertained by some PA members who believed he had been talking to the UNP on a possible crossover.

PA insiders say former Cricket Board Chairman Thilanga Sumathipala also worked closely with Mr. Dissanayake during the past few days.

Some PA members say Mr. Dissanayake had a continuous dialogue with UNP Leader Wickremesinghe on various matters, but he never discussed the present political crisis. Some UNP sources, however, dispute this claim.

Regardless of Mr. Dissanayake's supposed flirtations with the UNP, he has to play his role as the SLFP general secretary in steering the PA out of the present crisis.

In this regard, he met heads of the state media and instructed them to carry out a campaign against the no-confidence motion. But the state media TV campaign had a poor start when Deputy Minister Mervyn Silva was featured in a programme that lacked weight or punch. Himself a political somersaulter from the UNP to the PA, Mr. Silva has cut a sorry figure in the political stage with his various antics, ranging from reported over-veneration of the President to alleged thuggery at Town Hall and elsewhere. On Friday, he led a group of PA supporters in a demonstration outside the Maharajah Organisation, a leading private sector firm which is now unpopular with some PA elements.

While Mr. Dissanayake was busy on the media campaign, Prime Minister Wickremanayake and Ministers G.L. Peiris and D. M. Jayaratne among others intensified contacts with the JVP, which with its ten MPs holds the balance of power in parliament after the crossover of seven SLMC MPs to the opposition benches.

Minister Peiris had initial discussions with them at the Visumpaya where the JVP delegation led by Wimal Weerawansa put forward their demand for the setting up of five independent commissions for elections, the police, the public service, the judiciary and the state media. 

Minister Peiris told the JVP delegation that there were provisions in the draft constitution for all these commissions and asked the JVPers whether they wanted to include anything more in the draft constitution.

It is likely that the JVP will have another round of discussions with the government once President Chandrika Kumaratunga returns.

The JVP appears to be in a dilemma especially after President Kumaratunga indicated to the ministers on Monday that they could go ahead and sign a Memorandum of Understanding with the JVP.

However, the left party which has been called upon to play an important role in deciding the fate of Sri Lanka's politics in the coming years, is, blowing hot and blowing cold.

When a group of JVPers met Kotte Naga Viharaya's chief incumbent, Ven. Maduluwawe Sobitha Nayake Thera, they said they were not in a position either to help the government or back the Opposition in the current political standoff. It is because, it considers both the PA and the UNP as capitalist parties. Besides, the JVP is yet to, and cannot, get over the brutal repression the UNP regime unleashed on its members during the 1988-89 resurrection. Early this year, the PA government, in the face of the JVP making inroads into the PA vote bank, was also on a warpath against the JVP, highlighting the JVP-sponsored horror during the 1988-89 period in countrywide photographic exhibitions. 

While government leaders negotiated with the JVP, the party's propaganda secretary Wimal Weeraswansa played a different tune by saying that the PA and UNP were conducting secret talks to form a national government. 

His statement coincided with Minister Dissanayake's comments on Thursday night on state TV where he described the JVP as novices. 

Mr. Dissanayake is known to be an advocate of a national government, mainly between the PA and the UNP so that extremist parties would not be able to hold a government to ransom.

Be that as it may, the battle for leadership in the main Muslim party, the SLMC, intensified this week, with members loyal to party leader Rauf Hakeem obtaining a court injunction restraining Ferial Ashraff from presenting herself as leader of the National Unity Alliance, a broader front of the party.

Prior to this move, political broker A.J.M. Muzammil tried to bring the two factions together. His formula was to strengthen the position of Mr. Hakeem, while offering an important position in the party for Ms. Ashraff.

A meeting was on the cards between the two leaders. Accordingly Mr. Hakeem was to meet Ms. Ashraff at her residence on Tuesday morning. But Ms. Ashraff later refused to meet Mr. Hakeem when she learnt that the news about the proposed meeting was leaked to the media.

This prompted Mr. Hakeem to write a strong letter to Ms. Ashraff, asking her not to present herself as the leader of the NUA as it was he and not she who was the leader of both the SLMC and the NUA in terms of the NUA constitution.

He said that the leadership of the NUA was offered to her in deference to her late husband and founder of the party, M. H. M. Ashraff.

Prior to this move, Mr. Hakeem on Tuesday morning briefed the SLMC high command of his decision to meet Ms. Ashraff and sort out matters. But Mr. Muzammil interrupted to tell him that Ms. Ashraff was refusing to meet him.

Ms. Ashraff was sharp enough to guess the motives behind Mr. Hakeem's so-called meeting. She moved fast and summoned a meeting of the NUA high command.

Mr. Hakeem who was the General Secretary of the NUA also received a letter, telling him that the presence of all high command members was mandatory

Mr. Hakeem smelt a conspiracy of sorts behind the NUA high command meeting and sprang into action. Hakeem loyalists then rushed to Hulftsdorp with a hurriedly prepared petition, seeking an interim injunction to stop the meeting. Meanwhile, the UNP is also intensifying its people power campaign to oust the government, which it believes is increasingly becoming unpopular with the rising cost of living.

At present, the party is studying the scenario after the no-confidence motion. If the motion sees the passage of the House, the UNP could either form a government with all parties now in the opposition or form a government of national reconciliation with the PA and other parties.

The PA and the UNP are these days working on the draft of a joint communiqué, explaining outcome of the Kumaratunga-Wickremesinghe talks. While Lakshman Kadirgamar is working on the government side, UNP constitutional expert K.N. Choksy along with Tyronne Fernando, Mahinda Samarasinghe, Rohitha Bogollagama and Dr. Karunasena Kodituwakku discussed at length on Wednesday as to how the UNP should subscribe to this. 

On Thursday a crucial meeting took place in the parliamentary complex where ministers Anuruddha Ratwatte, Mangala Samaraweera and Lakshman Kadirgamar met a UNP delegation comprising Tyronne Fernando, Mahinda Samarasinghe and Rohitha Bogollagama.

The UNP team expressed reservation about issuing a joint communiqué and cited alleged distortions of facts by the Presidential Secretariat as the reason behind their reluctance. The UNPers were referring to a Presidential Secretariat news release, which said that the UNP leader had proposed that the government should de-proscribe the LTTE. The meeting ended without any decision being arrived at.

After the meeting between President Kumaratunga and Mr. Wickremesinghe, the two leaders met last Saturday at a Hilton wedding reception of the daughter of Central Bank Governor A. S. Jayawardena.

Pleasantries were exchanged but the two leaders were extra cautious not to talk about the agenda ahead of them.

The Fifth Column

Editorial/ Opinion Contents