Fallout of spy plane drama: US focus on Taiwan

Hawks in Washington and hardliners in Beijing may have temporarily lost ground, but the 11 day long standoff could still have long-term political and diplomatic repercussions on both sides.

The letter of regret – or as the Chinese would prefer to call it a letter of apology – sent by the White House to Beijing was obviously an attempt to resolve the crisis amicably.

"One immediate lesson from the spy plane crisis is clear: diplomacy works," says John Gershman, Asia/Pacific editor of "Foreign Policy in Focus".

The clear and present danger, he argues, is that the crisis has emboldened hawks in both China and the US, and that the Bush administration may cave in to the drum-beating of anti-China Republicans and agree to sell destabilising high-tech weapons to Taiwan later this month.

As one of the world's five major nuclear powers and a veto-wielding permanent member of the Security Council, China is a country crying out for international respect and high-profile recognition.

Even at the United Nations, China wants to be treated on par with the US, Britain, France and Russia, despite the fact that it remains a key player in the 133-member Group of 77, the largest single economic grouping of Third World nations.

The downing of one of its fighter planes by the US – though an accident – was unforgivable, and more so, because it happened in China's own backyard.

When US-led war planes accidentally bombed the Chinese embassy in Belgrade during NATO air strikes on Yugoslavia in 1999, China was outraged.

Despite expressions of regret by the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), China continued to maintain that the bombing was deliberate, not accidental.

The hardliners in China, who were pushing for a diplomatic confrontation with Washington, are mostly the military and the country's sprawling bureaucracy.

The hawks in the United States, on the other hand, are mostly right-wing conservative Republicans who are determined to cripple China's ambitions to become a major world power.

The only sure way of doing this is to support the continuing claims by Taiwan – also known as the Republic of China – to a sovereign nation state of its own.

But the People's Republic of China has consistently maintained that there is only one China – and Taiwan is part of the mainland.

China's fundamental state policy was expounded by the late Deng Xiaoping who called for a "peaceful reunification" of China and Taiwan under the concept of "one country, two systems."

In October 1971, Taiwan was booted out of the United Nations, and replaced by the People's Republic of China: an anomaly rectified about 25 years after the founding of the United Nations.

But since its explusion, Taiwan has made several unsuccessful attempts to seek re-admission to the world body.

But the overwhelming majority of UN member states – who have strong diplomatic ties to Beijing – subscribe to the Chinese view that Taiwan is only a province of China.

Taiwan's claim to UN membership was supported last year only by 12 of the 189 member states: Burkina Faso, El Salvador, Gambia, Grenada, Honduras, Liberia, Marshall Islands, Nicaragua, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Senegal, Solomon Islands and Swaziland.

Even if the General Assembly passes it, China will use its veto in the Security Council to block Taiwan's re-admission to the world body.

The US has continued to make it unequivocally clear that it does not support UN membership for Taiwan.

During a visit to China about two years ago, then President Bill Clinton said: "We don't support independence for Taiwan; or two Chinas; or one Taiwan, one China. And we don't believe that Taiwan should be a member in any organisation for which statehood is a requirement.'' He said the differences between China and Taiwan should be resolved peacefully.

The US policy came to be known as the three "No"s: no independence for Taiwan; no two Chinas and no membership for Taiwan at the United Nations.

But as the bitterness over the stand-off lingers on, the right wing elements in the Republican Party may push for a tougher stance against China.

Although the three 'nos' may still survive, the Bush administration may find a clear option to penalise Beijing: grant a long-shelved request for billions of dollars worth of state-of-the-art military equipment to Taiwan.

China has always treated the supply of high-tech weapons to Taiwan as an unfriendly act – whether the seller is the US, Britain or France. 

Last month, Zhang Chungxiang, Chinese Consul in Houston, Texas, even spoke against the granting of a US visa to the Taiwanese president who was expected to transit through Texas on his way to the Caribbean in May.

The response came from Tom DeLay, a Republican from Texas, who is also the House Majority Whip.

"The United States of America" he warned, " will not be intimidated by threats from the People's Republic of China regarding our Taiwan policy and the United States Congress will not be deterred from promoting freedom and democracy throughout the world."